Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN) shares may have further to rise after a supportive update from UBS, which maintained its 'buy' rating and set a 12-month price target of 455p.
That represents a 68% premium to the current share price of 270p.
Although the target has been reduced slightly from 480p due to weaker earnings guidance and higher interest costs, UBS remains confident in the outlook for the business.
Passenger volumes on the UK rail network rose by around 9% in April compared with the previous year, according to Department for Transport data. Volumes are now tracking at about 91% of pre-pandemic levels.
The Swiss bank estimates that if this level of recovery holds, combined with fare increases of almost 5%, Trainline’s UK consumer revenue could rise by about 9% this year.
Trainline is guiding group revenue growth of between 6% and 9% for the financial year. UBS notes that contactless ticketing expansion in the South East could reduce that growth by roughly one percentage point.
These systems allow passengers to pay fares directly with cards or phones, potentially reducing reliance on platforms like Trainline.
App usage in the UK rose by 6% in April. Trainline retained 86% market share of third-party ticketing users, although this was down from 90% in March last year. UBS data also shows rivals gaining ground, with their share of app downloads rising to 44% in March from 36% a year earlier.
In Europe, Trainline’s performance has been mixed. It gained share in Italy during April while competitors lost ground.
Its position in Spain was stable. In France, competition among rail operators is still limited, but new services, such as Trenitalia’s Paris to Marseille route launching in June, may support stronger demand in the second half.
UBS values the shares using a discounted cash flow model, based on a 10.5% cost of capital and 3.5% long-term growth rate. Even after trimming its earnings forecasts by 13% to 17% for the 2026 to 2028 period, the analysts see meaningful upside.
The recovery in travel volumes, combined with strong digital engagement and pricing growth, supports the investment case. Trainline still faces pressure from competition and shifts in ticketing technology, but UBS believes the business is well-positioned to adapt.