4:10pm: Stocks close mixed after quiet week
U.S. stocks closed out Friday in a holding pattern, with major indexes barely budging as investors paused to catch their breath following a volatile few weeks and shifted their attention to the next chapter in global trade negotiations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 119 points, or 0.3%, to end at 41,249, while the S&P 500 was essentially flat, slipping just 4 points to 5,660. The Nasdaq Composite managed to squeeze out a modest gain of 1 point, finishing at 17,929, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.2% to 2,022.
After Thursday’s bump, which was fueled by news of a preliminary U.S.-U.K. trade deal, Friday’s session was notably subdued. Investors largely stayed on the sidelines, opting to wait for fresh clues on the more consequential U.S.-China trade relationship. With talks set to resume over the weekend, Wall Street is bracing for potential headlines that could sway sentiment sharply in either direction.
Sector-wise, there wasn’t much of a standout. Thursday’s winners—industrials, materials, and energy—cooled off, and no single area led the way on Friday. It was a day of treading water, reflecting a market that’s in “wait-and-see” mode.
Commodities saw a bit more action: oil prices edged higher, boosted by lingering hopes that trade progress might give global growth a lift. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continued to hover above the $100,000 mark, maintaining its footing after a recent surge that’s captivated crypto-watchers.
For the week, the S&P 500 dipped about 0.4%, while the Dow and Nasdaq were more or less unchanged. All in all, it was one of the calmest weeks in recent memory—a stark contrast to the recent turbulence fueled by economic uncertainty and policy shifts.
As we head into the weekend, all eyes turn to Washington and Beijing. With so much riding on the outcome of U.S.-China trade talks—not least the fortunes of companies heavily tied to Chinese markets—investors will be listening closely for any signs of progress. Next week’s market tone may very well be set by what unfolds at the negotiating table.
2:50pm: China's account surplus
China's current account surplus has hit new record, noted Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at online trading platform IG.
"As China's current account surplus hit a new record, something US President Trump is likely to comment on ahead of this weekend's trade talks, the Asian country's export growth remains resilient for now, with imports dropping only slightly," Rudolph commented.
"While the US dollar is on track for its third weekly gain, the oil price is expected to also end the week in positive territory as it bounces off its 4-year low amid supply concerns and heightened tensions between India and Pakistan."
1:26pm: Stocks slip, Bitcoin rallies
It’s a mixed bag on Wall Street this early Friday afternoon as investors weigh upbeat trade rhetoric against sobering warnings from Federal Reserve officials.
The Dow Jones is down about 0.3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are each off 0.1%, as markets digest a wave of headlines on trade, inflation, and corporate earnings.
Hopes for a thaw in tariff tensions got a fresh boost after former President Trump posted on social media that “Many Trade Deals [are] in the hopper, all good (GREAT!) ones.” That optimism helped lift sentiment in some corners of the market—Bitcoin (BTC-USD) jumped back above $102,000, after briefly topping $104,000 overnight.
On the earnings front, Pinterest (PINS) is soaring after the company issued a better-than-expected quarterly revenue outlook, easing fears that trade uncertainty could drag down ad spending. Expedia (EXPE), however, is under pressure after missing revenue forecasts, pointing to weaker U.S. demand for travel bookings.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is striking a more cautious tone. Fed Governor Michael Barr and New York Fed President John Williams both warned Friday that Trump’s tariffs could push up inflation, raise unemployment, and weigh on economic growth in the months ahead. The remarks underscore the central bank’s balancing act, as it navigates an uncertain policy environment.
Their comments echo Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said earlier this week that the Fed would wait for “greater clarity” on the impact of trade policy before moving on rates.
11:32am: Switzerland: a possible turning point?
US equities saw a modest uptick at the end of the week, fueled by cautious optimism over potential breakthroughs in global trade negotiations.
Investors are closely watching an upcoming meeting in Switzerland between senior Chinese and US officials, led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which could mark a turning point in the ongoing tariff dispute.
President Trump's recent remarks about a possible reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods—from 145% to around 80%—added to the hopeful sentiment. However, analysts stress that markets are looking for more than headline promises.
As Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone, noted, “Markets are responding positively to signs of easing tensions, but the shift from diplomatic rhetoric to tangible, sustained economic improvement is the true challenge ahead.”
10:41am: All eyes on Geneva
Global markets are bracing for a potentially transformative trade summit in Geneva this weekend, with investors riding high on momentum from a landmark US-UK trade deal.
The summit, which gathers delegates from the G20, WTO, and finance ministries, aims to modernize trade frameworks and reduce long-standing frictions such as tariffs and inefficient customs processes. Hopes are rising that real progress—particularly among the US, EU, and China—could spark a global rally in equities.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, emphasized the importance of the moment: “This is a potentially pivotal moment. We’ve seen how bilateral deals can move markets, and now the world’s major economies have a window to build on that momentum. Geneva could trigger a global reset in trade—and a fresh surge in stocks.”
With forward indicators like U.S. manufacturing orders and Chinese exports on the rise, and global interest rates trending lower, a breakthrough in Geneva could provide the catalyst for sustained equity growth.
Green added, “A genuine step forward on trade will encourage risk-taking, drive earnings upgrades, and support higher valuations across global markets.”
9:52am: Markets extend rally
US stocks opened higher on Friday, building on this week’s gains as investor confidence remains strong heading into the weekend.
The Nasdaq led the charge higher on Friday, gaining 102 points, or 0.6%, to open at 18,030 as upbeat investor sentiment continued to fuel momentum in tech and growth stocks. The S&P 500 followed with a 17-point rise, or 0.3%, to 5,680, while the Dow Jones edged up 43 points, or 0.1%, to 41,411.
Traders are bracing for a flurry of remarks from Federal Reserve officials throughout the day, including early comments from New York Fed President John Williams, with more to come from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Overseas, China reported a sharp 21% drop in exports to the US in April, even as trade with Europe and Asia accelerated.
President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to float the idea of an “80% Tariff on China,” referencing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
In the corporate spotlight, Expedia slumped 9% in premarket trading after warning of weaker demand, while Boeing got a lift as British Airways parent IAG confirmed a 32-jet order.
7.30am: Nasdaq set to lead gains at Friday open
The Nasdaq is expected to power ahead when the market opens on Friday on optimism that a US-UK trade deal announced on Thursday could lead to similar deals with other countries, easing global trade tensions.
Futures for the tech-heavy index are up 0.4% in pre-market trading. Those for S&P 500 gained 0.3%, while Dow Jones futures are 0.1% higher.
Wall Street surged on Thursday as investors responded positively to President Donald Trump’s announcement of the trade agreement with the United Kingdom, as well as his suggestion that tariffs on Chinese imports—currently at 145%—could come down if negotiations progress favorably.
The Dow and the S&P 500 both rose 0.6%, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.1%.
Market analysts cautioned the "limited agreement" with London might not serve as a template for broader deals, tempering enthusiasm ahead of the Sino-US trade talks set for Saturday in Switzerland.
"Global markets appeared more optimistic about easing trade tensions than they were two weeks ago, when the US administration first signalled a potential de-escalation with China," commented Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly.
"Still, sentiment surrounding Saturday's US-China discussions in Switzerland remains mixed."
Meanwhile, China is starting to feel the impact of Trump's new tariff regime.
Export value growth from the world's second biggest economy eased to 8.1% year-on-year last month, down from 12.4% in March. But while the trade war is starting to bite, the impact wasn't nearly as sharp as the market had expected, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics' Kelvin Lam.
Exports to the US fell sharply, down a "whopping" 21% compared to a pre-tariff rush spike of 9.1% in March, due to front-loading by US importers, Lam wrote in a note.
"Overall, tariffs are clearly having a material impact on China’s export performance in April, but the drop in US shipments was partly offset by a sharp rise in exports to ASEAN," said Lam.