Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
Federal Reserve rate decision
The United States Federal Reserve’s May meeting commences this Tuesday. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not expected to cut interest rates this month— with the CME FedWatch tool indicating only a 3.2% probability of a May cut—investors will closely watch Jerome Powell’s press conference for insight into how Donald Trump’s tariffs may influence the Central Bank’s policy path moving forward.
Last week, data revealed the US economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) declining by 0.3%, in contrast to 2.4% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2024. The downturn has been linked to Trump’s tariffs, which prompted businesses to front-load imports ahead of the levies. Coupled with the largest drop in consumer sentiment since the 1990s, this has fuelled fears of a US recession and potential spillover effects globally.
With the full impact of the April tariffs still emerging, the Fed is expected to tread cautiously. Retailers are anticipated to raise prices in coming months to absorb higher import costs, potentially pushing inflation upward in the short term. A hold is expected in May, but market participants are increasingly pricing in a potential cut in June.
Macquarie Australia Conference
Macquarie’s 2025 Australia Conference also begins Tuesday and is considered the largest annual gathering of Australian-listed companies. It marks the start of the unofficial “confession season”, where firms may begin revising forward guidance ahead of July–August full-year results.
In 2024, artificial intelligence, globalisation, and shifting consumer habits were key topics. This year’s event will welcome more than 1,000 institutional investors and a record number of corporate presentations. Expected macro themes include the threat of a US recession and heightened trade tensions.
Attendees include Guzman y Gomez (GYG), Flight Centre, WiseTech Global, and Mirvac. Investors will be listening closely for commentary on how geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around tariffs, is impacting operations and the ability to provide earnings guidance.
AMD and Palantir earnings
Earnings season continues with key reports expected from Disney, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Uber, and Novo Nordisk. Despite US-China trade concerns, Australian investors remain active buyers of US equities. eToro data shows that Australian users opened 17% more buy positions per day in April (post-2 April) compared to March, while global users increased daily buy activity by only 6%.
AMD is a notable focus. Analysts expect the company to report year-on-year increases in both revenue and profit for the first quarter, despite the stock experiencing downward pressure due to trade-related headwinds. Although AMD shares fell 15% in Q1, eToro Australia saw a 6% rise in holders over the same period, suggesting retail interest in the stock’s longer-term potential.
Palantir Technologies will report earnings tonight. The company has had a strong start to 2025, outperforming peers despite a challenging macro backdrop. On April 14, Palantir announced NATO would purchase an AI-powered battlefield situational awareness system, likely to support its Q1 performance as the deal was finalised in March.
Palantir shares are up 65% year-to-date. While the company briefly dipped following the weak US GDP data, the stock quickly rebounded. Analysts are forecasting 36% year-over-year revenue growth to US$862.2 million, and the company’s growing role in AI adoption continues to position it favourably among investors.
As earnings roll out through the week, Australian investors will be assessing how trade frictions and geopolitical risks are translating into corporate results and future guidance.