British Gas owner Centrica PLC (LSE:CNA) is set to issue a trading statement on 8 May, with its shares up 15% so far this year and not far from six-year highs.
Results in February helped lift the stock as the FTSE 100 group unveiled a new £500 million buyback and upped its dividend on the back of growing cash flows last year, despite flagging profit.
Lower profits, Centrica said, this reflected "normalising" conditions after it had benefited from heightened energy prices in recent years.
For this coming AGM update, analysts at UBS expect a brief statement reflecting weaker upstream energy prices but continued progress in downstream operations.
UBS said it models 2025 earnings per share at 15.9p, ahead of both Refinitiv and company-supplied consensus estimates. The broker maintained a 'Buy' rating and 175p price target.
In Retail and Optimisation, Centrica is expected to remain within previously stated operating profit ranges, with British Gas Services already tracking at a £100-200 million run rate.
The company may also provide updates on policy developments and regulatory reforms in the UK supply market.
UBS noted recent declines in gas and power prices for 2025 and 2026, though most of Centrica’s 2025 volumes were hedged as of mid-February. It said tax effects would help limit the EPS impact this year, while 2026 remains more exposed.
Centrica’s participation in the Sizewell ‘C’ nuclear project is seen as a potential long-term catalyst, with a UK Government decision expected next month. The company has outlined a capital plan that includes up to £2 billion in equity investment in the project across 2025–2032, while still retaining capacity for further M&A activity.