Donald Trump is marking the 100-day mark in his second presidency by reshaping both domestic institutions and the global economic order.
Trump’s swift policy actions—ranging from aggressive tariffs to civil service overhauls—have served as a stress test for US governance and financial markets. The resulting volatility, coupled with rising inflation expectations and a weakening dollar, has prompted investors and global allies to reassess their exposure to US assets and alliances, underscoring the high stakes of his second term.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, called the early impact of the Trump administration “unprecedented in both speed and scale.”
“The speed, scale, and shock value of the Trump administration’s early moves have stunned investors and hammered traditional safe havens,” said Green. “In just over three months, he has unleashed a new era of uncertainty, volatility, and rapid transformation that’s reshaping global markets in real time.”
Policy swings
Since January, the administration has levied sweeping tariffs on key imports, sparking immediate retaliation from trading partners including China and the European Union. The effective US tariff rate is now at its highest in over a century.
Meanwhile, a controversial bureaucratic overhaul led by billionaire Elon Musk—dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—has gutted the federal workforce, disrupted procurement contracts, and hollowed out critical regulatory agencies.
The fallout has been swift. The US dollar has dropped to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies, while the S&P 500 is down roughly 8%, marking the worst stock market performance during the early months of 1974.
“Investors are beginning to question whether the US dollar can maintain its hegemonic status,” Green warned. “If Washington continues to weaponize its economic policies and undermine its own institutions, the shift away from the dollar could accelerate.”
The appointment of Musk to head DOGE initially sparked enthusiasm in tech circles, but the market mood has since soured. Musk’s erratic approach and declining public approval have dragged down Tesla shares and broader tech sentiment.
“When a single unelected official wields such unchecked power over the federal apparatus, it destabilizes both investor confidence and diplomatic alliances,” Green added.
Recession fears
Consumer sentiment in the US has also fallen sharply. While inflation has moderated slightly, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global supply chains has stoked recession fears. According to Swissquote Bank’s senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya, “The US economy has certainly taken an unnecessary hit from tariff uncertainty, as GDP is expected to have dropped from 2.4% to 0.4% in just three months.”
Bloomberg Economics recently estimated that if tariffs remain at elevated levels, S&P 500 companies could see net income contract by 7% in 2025, reversing a previously forecasted 12% gain. The damage may be compounded by tit-for-tat tariffs, which could erode the benefits of a weaker dollar for US exporters.
“There is no clarity regarding the tariff situation, and the best outcome would be that the US keeps the 10% tariffs for everyone even if negotiations go well and lead to a favourable outcome,” Ozkardeskaya added. “Unfortunately, on that front, the news is not brilliant.”
Prolonged uncertainty
Investors are now pricing in prolonged uncertainty, with gold rallying to multi-year highs and capital shifting toward emerging market debt—despite heightened risk of default. Green warned that the consequences of these moves could be long-lasting.
“The medium-term threat is even greater: a hard fragmentation of global trade relationships and permanent shifts in investment flows,” he said.
As Trump marks his 100th day back in office, the message from markets is clear: volatility is the new normal. Investors are being forced to recalibrate strategies, reassess risk, and prepare for a world where the rules of the postwar economic order no longer apply.
“Trump’s first 100 days have been a turning point,” Green concluded. “We urge investors to remain globally diversified, rethink exposure to US-centric assets, and position for a world where economic nationalism and political unpredictability dominate. Ignoring this seismic shift would be perilous.”