- FTSE 100 climbs 9 points to 8,472
- US GDP fell more than expected in first quarter
- Barclays Q1 profits beat forecasts thanks to investment bank
- GSK earnings beat despite vaccine slowdown
4.15pm: FTSE on course for record run
The FTSE 100 has clambered back above water, which puts it on course for what I think will be its longest ever winning streak of 13 days.
While banks and miners are in the red, GSK, Smith & Nephew, Coca-Cola HBC on the back of trading updates, backed up by the index's mass of defensive stocks in the defence, pharma and tobacco sectors were all helping nudge the index into positive territory.
Commodities trader Glencore is down almost 7% on the back of a production update on its mining business, while other miners are also lower due to sliding commodities prices. Anglo American and Antofagasta are both down over 4%.
HSBC and Standard Chartered are leading the banking sector lower, which indicates that China worries are the cause, with Prudential also lower despite its good start to the year. All three finance giants have a heavy focus on the People's Republic.
NatWest is down 1.8% and Barclays 0.6%, despite its Q1 results impressing, and Lloyds 0.4%, ahead of its results tomorrow.
3.35pm: Reactions to GDP from Trump and an economist
In response to the GDP figures and the 1.5% fall in the S&P 500 today, down over 11% since the start of the year, Donald Trump says: "This is Biden’s stock market, not Trump’s.
"I didn’t take over until January 20th," he points out in a social media post, though the S&P is down over 13% since that point.
"Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden 'Overhang'," he continues.
"This will take a while, has nothing to do with tariffs, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. Be patient," he concludes.
Kallum Pickering, economist at Peel Hunt, says the GDP fall is not the headline that Trump would have hoped for to mark his first 100 days back in office.
"However, the 1Q GDP drop is down entirely to his administration's misguided trade policies - which had been signalled on the campaign trail."
He also notes that the data reflects economic activity ahead of the 'liberation day' tariffs and the imposition of the 145% tariff on Chinese imports.
"While economic activity at the start of the year reflected adjustments to anticipated tariffs, the second quarter will reflect the actual impacts of the huge tariff-induced supply shock and a demand-side shock caused by falling confidence and rising uncertainty.
"A US recession is now a serious worry - we put a 35% risk on such an outcome," Pickering says.
He adds that the Fed typically reacts aggressively to growth risks, but policymakers "may worry that they could feed a 'stagflation' narrative in case they signal an over-eagerness to lean into economic weakness as trade tariffs trigger a temporary inflation uptick.
"A lot will depend on how inflation expectations evolve and whether the demand shock exceeds the supply shock. If market-based measures of expected pressures remain mostly under control, that would open the door for a series of cautious cuts from the Fed."
2.46pm: Wall Street reverses sharply
US stocks have not taken the GDP data well, opening sharply in the red.
The Dow Jones has started 633 points to the bad, down 1.6%, with the S&P 500 falling 2% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbling 2.7%.
Almost all 20 of the largest stocks on the Nasdaq are lower, most of them down 2% or 3%, with Nvidia down 4.2% and Tesla almost 5% lower.
Eli Lilly, Visa and Mastercard are the only ones in green.
2.32pm: FTSE wobbles after US GDP data
The FTSE 100, which fell over 42 points to a 0.3% deficit on the back of the US GDP number, is now back in the green.
Similarly the DAX has fallen into the red and is still there.
2.26pm: US GDP not quite as bad as headline number looks
The US economy's sharp slowdown was largely as expected, but this does not necessarily send a warning sign that a recession is imminent, says Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
As the biggest drag on growth was trade and lower government spending, as well as the largest surge in imports on record, it "suggests that the impact of US trade tariffs is impacting business behavior, with businesses front loading imports of goods to try and avoid reciprocal tariffs".
Many of the imports will make their way into inventories, "which can neutralize some of the effect of increased imports", Brooks says.
She says there could also be a "payback in future quarters" from front-loading imports, with import levels expected to decline in the second and later quarters, with bloated inventory levels to ease in the coming months.
A surge in imports of gold and silver doesn’t enter the GDP calculation, but is included in the import figures, so the surge in imports "is not all down to front loading of goods imports to avoid tariffs, although that did happen last quarter", says Brooks.
"The 5% drag on growth from imports is likely to be a one off, as gold imports are expected to return to normal down the line."
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model includes a gold-adjusted GDP estimate, which is estimated to be down 1.5% for Q1 versus a -2.4% decline if gold imports were included.
Not all of the GDP report was bad news, either, says Brooks, with fixed investment a "decent" 1.3%, personal consumption stronger than expected at 1.8% and real final sales to private domestic purchases up 3% compared to 2.9% growth rate in Q4 2024.
"This suggests that the US consumer and investment is holding up in the face of uncertainty and stock market declines, even if it has slowed in recent months."
2pm: US economy shrinks
US economic growth was weaker than expected in the past quarter, with growth shrinking more than expected.
Gross domestic product growth contracted by 0.3%, data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows, versus a 0.2% decline anticipated by economists.
This first estimate of Q1 GDP is the first time the US economy has shrunk since 2022.
The biggest drag on growth was trade and lower government spending (think DOGE), the BEA, while a surge in imports weighed on growth to the tune of 4.8% - the most on record.
Separately, the ADP jobs report showed private payrolls increased 62,000 in April, compared with estimates for an increase of 115,000.
12.31pm: Stocks up in Europe, heading down in US
The FTSE 100 has continued to worm its way towards a small gain today, up 0.15%
Across on the Continent, Germany's DAX and France's CAC are both up 0.6%.
US futures are mostly lower for the main indices, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.5%, those for the S&P 500 pointing 0.3% lower and Dow Jones futures just above flat.
Elsewhere, a gold price poll among analysts and economists has found they expected the price to average $3,065 an ounce this year and $3,000 an oz in 2026.
The Reuters poll is first in which analysts expect average annual gold price above $3,000.
Silver is expected to average $33.10 an oz in 2025, rising to $34.58 in 2026.
11.51am: M&S says product availability being hit
Marks and Spencer Group PLC (LSE:MKS) shares were up earlier but have dropped back as it put out a statement to reveal some products are running short in its stores after the ongoing cyber-attack.
The FTSE 100 clothing and groceries retailer said the cyber issues that first emerged over a week ago had led to "pockets of limited availability".
A decision has been made to "take some of our systems temporarily offline" to try and manage the incident, it added.
"We are working hard to get availability back to normal across the estate."
Earlier, shares bounced back up for the second day in a row from recent lows.
Russ Mould at AJ Bell said: "The company hasn’t taken any online orders for the past five days which could add up to a significant number of lost sales.
"Its reputation may also have been damaged as shoppers worry if their details have been stolen by hackers and whether it is still safe to use cards in-store."
10.55am: Markets update
After the FTSE 100 chalked up a 12th straight day of gains yesterday, "bulls are arguably looking a little tired as we digest a slew of corporate updates this morning", says market analyst Neil Wilson in his new Saxo Markets blazer.
With London's blue chips added about 0.1% in early trade, Wilson also notes that sterling pulled back 0.3% to $1.3359 after hitting a two-year high against the dollar yesterday.
Weighing on the index are falls for miners, and Shell and BP, with US WTI front month futures prices dipping below $60 for a two-week low.
"Oil is on track for largest April loss due to trade war impacts and eased OPEC+ supply curbs, with production rising next month. Brent has dropped 15% to near $63/barrel, its biggest April fall since 1988," says Wilson.
"Although we have some generally positive sentiment around trade deals – US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying one has been struck already – risk appetite is fragile and some weak China data overnight is perhaps holding back the bulls and weighed on mining stocks with Glencore (production update), Antofagasta and Anglo American among the biggest fallers at the open."
See also the China update below.
Wilson says Barclays "hit all the right notes" with its quarterly results, led by booming trading and wealth management, but the UK consumer business is also "chugging along very well".
Shares in banks are in the red now, which has dragged BARC down 2%.
Looking to later, Wilson says earnings from two of the Mag 7 with Meta and Microsoft due to report after the close, are preceded by Caterpillar, ADP and Etsy to set the scene.
Important US data today also comes in the shape of the PCE price index, which is expected to be flat month-on-month.
Elsewhere, Wilson flags a possible "Brazil breakout", with a key ETF breaking free from a 16-month downtrend, just a couple of days after BofA produced a chart highlighting how "cheap" Brazil appeared on an historic basis.
10.25am: Europe update
First-quarter real GDP in the euro zone rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, after a 0.2% increase at the end of last year. Q4, slightly higher than our above-consensus call; PM: 0.3%, Consensus: 0.2%. The year-over-year crept up to 1.2% from 1.0%.
GDP was "rising solidly ... before the US tariff hammer fell", says Melanie Debono at Pantheon Macro.
As the ECB expected a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter increase in when it put together its latest forecasts in March, the stronger outcome "will reassure the ECB somewhat that the economy was resilient on the eve of the tariff shock, helping to balance the recent dovish shift in communication, at least a little bit".
German, French and other national inflation figures are also published today, generally showing sticky prices.
Economist Sam Miley at Cebr said the eurozone economy's expansion "was likely supported by the ECB’s ongoing monetary loosening, as well as exporters increasing activity prior to the implementation of tariffs from the US".
"Despite the stronger performance in Q1, the outlook for the currency bloc remains weak, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and poor domestic demand conditions. Cebr projects the Eurozone economy to grow by just 0.8% this year, far below its long-term trend."
10.16am: China update
After China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April, the lowest since late 2023, we also have had Beijing say this morning that no trade talks have yet begun with the US
Both the official and Caixin manufacturing indices lost ground in April, hit by the tariff war, with both PMIs revealing plunges in new export orders.
Shipments to the US plunged, "but trade with other markets should be holding up," says economist Duncan Wrigley at Pantheon Macroeconomics, "in some cases will be buoyed by transhipments of exports for the US".
Overall new orders were hit by falling export demand, while both PMIs also pointed to intensifying deflationary forces, with raw materials price gauges at the lowest readings since September, before the latest stimulus policies were launched, which "should put fighting deflation higher on the policy agenda".
Sentiment about future output dropped, but was holding up just above the pre-stimulus September levels, "but this probably won’t last", says Wrigley, with manufacturers "worried about the intensification of trade conflict and hope the government will introduce support policies".
He adds: "Neither the US or China appears ready to make the necessary overtures to begin serious negotiations. More evidence of economic pain on both sides will probably be needed to get talks going, likely taking several months or longer.
"China is also looking for the US to appoint a chief trade negotiator and for clearer indications of the US’s goals, given the conflicting signals from different senior US officials."
10.05am: US auto changes 'still bad news' says broker
The Trump Administration's new plans to "soften" the impact of auto tariffs will see additional 25% tariff on auto parts still go in into effect on May 3, but car companies will be able to apply for reimbursements.
The update also allows automakers reimbursements on up to 15% of the tariffs paid on imported foreign parts for cars finished in the US for the first period and 10% next year period.
"While this sounds good on paper (less bad then the original auto tariff slate), a US car with all US parts made in the US is a fictional tale not possible today and many factories/production hubs could take 4-5 years to build in the US...and this speaks to the massive frustration from the industry as the rules of the US tariff game are untenable in our view," says analyst Dan Ives at Wedbush.
"Many US made US cars in the US have over 40% of auto parts from outside the US..this speaks to the brutal situation facing many automakers today despite some of the 'tariff reprieve'."
He believes the average auto sticker price will go up roughly $5k to $10k when this is tariff situation is all settled.
9.38am: FTSE into the red
The FTSE 100 has slipped into the red, with miners the cause (see the previous update below).
Glencore, Anglo American and Antofagasta are bottom of the movers chart, down 4.6%, 3.5% and 3.3%.
Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.), after its update earlier, is down 2.4% as investors respond to its warning of weaker first-half margins.
Prudential PLC (LSE:PRU) is also down 2.4% despite keeping its guidance intact.
9.23am: Glencore and miners on the slide
Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) shares fell over 4% on Wednesday as the miner and commodities trading giant delivered a disappointing first-quarter production update.
It is leading a group of miners weighing on the Footsie, as market prices for various commodities are down today.
Brent crude oil has dropped 1.7% to just over $62 a barrel, around its lowest since early 2021, copper is also down 4% and gold down 0.9%.
Glencore reported lower copper and zinc output in Q1, but guidance for full-year production remained unchanged.
CEO Gary Nagle said the exception was a 5% reduction to energy coal due to a recent decision to reduce volumes at its Cerrejón project to "support rebalancing this market", ie prices.
He added: "Since quarter-end, financial markets, including commodities, have been highly volatile and unpredictable, responding rapidly to US tariff newsflow and uncertainty.
"In such an unpredictable environment, risk management has been a primary focus, noting the many complex supply chains we are exposed to, including the US, China, Europe and Canada.
"Despite the 'noise', primary commodity trade routes to date have not been meaningfully disrupted. However, owing to the various proposed and currently being implemented tariffs across commodity supply chains, it is likely that some physical trade flow re-orientation and dislocation will manifest over the coming months, which may present opportunities for our Marketing business."
8.54am: Gene-edited pigs top of the FTSE 250
On the FTSE 250, shares in Genus PLC (LSE:GNS) have surged 22% after the US Food and Drug Administration approved the company’s gene-edited pigs for use in the American food supply.
It marks a major breakthrough for the UK animal genetics group, which has spent years developing pigs resistant to PRRS, a disease that has long plagued the global pork industry.
Importantly for investors, Genus confirmed that the approval was in line with expectations and said its wider commercial strategy and financial guidance remain unchanged.
8.37am: Aston Martin cuts shipments to US
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings PLC (LSE:AML) said it is limiting how many cars it exports to the US, its third biggest market last year, due to the impact of Donald Trump’s automotive tariffs.
CEO Adrian Hallmark said: "We are carefully monitoring the evolving US tariff situation and are currently limiting imports to the US while leveraging the stock held by our US dealers.
"We remain vigilant in monitoring events and will respond to changes in the operating environment as they materialise."
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on foreign cars and parts earlier this year but said yesterday that he would scale back some of these levies.
8.15am: FTSE starts on the up, helped by Barclays
The FTSE 100 has made a positive start, helped by gains for Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) and Smith & Nephew PLC (LSE:SN) on the back of results.
In early trading the index was up 19 points to 8,482.6.
Barclays shares rose 2%, while Smith & Nephew topped the list at 5%. GSK is up 0.7% after its results.
Weighing things down were Glencore, Antofagasta and BP.
7.59am: GSK beats too
FTSE 100 top-tenner GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) has also reported earnings ahead of expectations, and kept full year guidance intact.
The drug manufacturer reported a 6.1% fall in vaccine sales to £2.10 billion, which was almost in line with the $2.11 billion average City forecast.
Overall group revenues were up 2% at £7.52 billion, just beating the consensus estimate of £7.46 billion, while at the bottom line adjusted earnings per share rose 4% to 44.9p, well ahead of the 40.6p expected.
For the full year it still expects sales of between 3% and 8% on a constant currency basis, with adjusted EPS up between 6% and 8%.
CEO Emma Walmsley said the group is well prepared if Donald Trump imposes a sector-specific tariff.
7.35am: A Barclays beat
Among the raft of results, Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) reported a 19% increase in profits for the first quarter of 2025, beating City expectations thanks in part due to a strong performance from its investment bank.
The investment banking arm posted a 16% rise in income, including a 21% increase in fixed income and currency trading.
Barclays did increase credit impairment charges to £0.6 billion, reflecting a higher loan loss rate of 61 basis points and including a £74 million adjustment tied to rising macroeconomic uncertainty in the US.
But chief executive CS Venkatakrishnan is most pleased with the performance and says the lender is well positioned to "deliver strong risk-adjusted returns in a wide range of macroeconomic scenarios".
7.22am: House prices softer
Adding to the influx of results, there is also house price data from Nationwide.
House prices unexpectedly fell 0.6% in April compared to the month earlier, having been expected to add another 0.1% as was seen in March.
On an annual and non-seasonally adjusted basis, price growth slowed to 3.4% from 3.9% a month ago, while an improvement to 4.2% had been expected.
Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner, said this softening in house price growth "was to be expected, given the changes to stamp duty at the start of the month".
"Early indications suggest there was a significant jump in transactions in March, with buyers bringing forward their purchases to avoid additional tax obligations."
He expects the housing market to "remain a little soft in the coming months, following the pattern typically observed following the end of stamp duty holidays".
"Nevertheless, activity is likely to pick up steadily as summer progresses, despite wider economic uncertainties in the global economy, since underlying conditions for potential home buyers in the UK remain supportive."
Mortgage rates have been coming down too.
7.15am: Mixed news on tariffs
It was reported last night that Donald Trump has made a UK trade deal a "second-order priority".
Sources have told the Guardian newspaper that US officials have decided to split their negotiations with more than a dozen other countries into three phases, with the UK being placed in either the second or third phase.
The report said that UK officials are concerned that a deal with the EU, which they are hope to agree at a summit next month, "could make it more difficult to negotiate with a Trump administration that repeatedly criticises European trade policies".
Market sentiment improved yesterday on news that Donald Trump would ease auto tariffs by lifting some levies on imported auto parts, and to avoid aluminium and steel levies stacking up alongside the rest of the tariffs, notes market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank.
She says this was "probably as a marketing move as he gave a speech in Michigan marking his 100 days in office".
Part of the gains seen on stock markets were also due to hope that US corporate earnings would be resilient to tariff uncertainty, she added, with Scott Bessent eyeing a July 4th announcement to pass a multi-trillion-dollar tax cut package to help improve the new administration’s plunging approval ratings.
But the majority of US corporate news was "less than ideal", she added, including General Motors withdrawing guidance due to tariff uncertainty and Amazon being forced to withdraw plans to show customers how tariffs were affecting prices.
Elsewhere this morning in tariff news, Chinese factory activity slowed in April due to the US tariffs, with the PMI index for the manufacturing sector dropping to 49.0, from March's 12-month high of 50.5.
7.12am: FTSE 100 called flat but lots corporate results coming through
A flat FTSE 100 start has been called on Wednesday that could confound the index's longest winning run in nine years, though another busy results day could still turn things around.
Futures have the London benchmark falling around four points, a day after it added 46 points to reach 8,463.46.
Overnight, US stocks indices all finished higher, led by a 0.75% gain for the Dow Jones, while the D&P 500 and Nasdaq both climbed just under 0.6%.
Asia is mostly in the green this morning, but gains are small, with the Shanghai Composite index a lonely red number.
5am: What to watch on Wednesday 30 April
The last day of April starts with trading updates from at least nine FTSE 100 constituents, plus the little matter of earnings from $4 trillion worth of US tech giants, in Microsoft and Meta Platforms after the US closing bell.
Tenth in the Footsie's size chart and coming a day after its bigger UK rival resulted in a volatile day for the shares, GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) will see its vaccine business under a fierce spotlight, as it has been since the appointment of jab-sceptic Robert F Kennedy Jnr as US health secretary.
Haleon PLC (LSE:HLN, NYSE:HLN), the toothpaste and painkillers business spun out of GSK and Pfizer, meanwhile has been attracting positive attention as analysts suggest the group is well positioned for the current uncertain climate.
Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) has also highlighted as a top pick in another sector, where it is also seen as well-positioned, thanks to the strength of its investment banking division and upside from its trading business.
Elsewhere in the wider financial services space, Aberdeen Group PLC (LSE:ABDN) reports for the first time since adding the EEEs back into its name, with updates from others in the investment and fund sub-sectors suggesting this could be a mixed update.
Later on, Microsoft earnings will be centre stage, though even some bullish supporters in Wall Street have been nervous about Microsoft's prospects of late, while others still see opportunities.
As for the Instagram and Facebook owner, Meta is expected to report another quarter of strong revenue and profit growth, but investors will also be on the lookout for updates regarding advertising trends, AI spending and how it is navigating regulatory and macroeconomic headwinds.
Announcements due:
Trading updates: Aberdeen Group, Aston Martin Lagonda, Barclays, Coca Cola HBC, Glencore, GSK, Haleon, OSB Group, PPHE Hotel, Prudential, Santander UK, Segro, Smith & Nephew, Spectris, Taylor Wimpey
Finals: Novacyt, Puretech Health, Sanderson Design Group, Strix Group, Videndum
Overseas earnings: Airbus, Caterpillar, Etsy, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Qualcomm
AGM: Alfa Financial Software Holdings, Anglo American, Aviva, BBGI Global Infrastructure, F&C Investment Trust, Glanbia, Lancashire Holdings, M&G, Melrose Industries, Minoan Group, STV Group, Symphony International Holdings, Taylor Wimpey, Unilever, Winking Studios, Woodbois
Economic announcements: Manufacturing PMI (CHN), GDP (EU), ADP Employment (US), PCE Prices (US), Personal Income and Spending (US), GDP Price Index (US), Chicago PMI (US), Pending Home Sales (US)