The risk of a global recession this year has risen sharply, according to a Reuters poll of over 300 economists.
Around 60% of those surveyed said the chances were high or very high, citing the damaging impact of US tariffs on business confidence.
Three-quarters of economists cut their 2025 global growth forecasts, bringing the median projection down to 2.7%, with only limited optimism for a recovery in 2026.
President Donald Trump’s push to impose widespread tariffs has rattled financial markets and hit revenue forecasts for many companies.
Although some tariffs have been suspended temporarily, duties remain in place, notably a 145% tariff on Chinese goods.
Economists warned that even if tariffs were removed today, the damage to perceptions of US reliability on trade and defence agreements would linger.