Gold miners may have already had a good run this year, but JPMorgan reckons the best could still be ahead - if the rally in the precious metal keeps gathering pace.
The bank said on Monday it sees 60–90% upside in shares of Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) gold miners if gold prices climb towards $4,000 an ounce, a target its commodities team expects by the second quarter of 2026.
Despite the strong gains so far this year, with gold up 15% and miners rising 20–50%, analysts argue the recent sell-off after first-quarter results has left valuations looking attractive again.
For UK investors, the key stocks to watch are Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES), Hochschild Mining PLC (LSE:HOC, OTCQX:HCHDF), and AngloGold Ashanti (ASX:AGG), all of which JPMorgan rates 'overweight', meaning it expects them to outperform the wider market.
Fresnillo remains the bank’s top pick, with its price target lifted from £10 to £14.50 a share, offering what analysts describe as "compelling value" given its strong cash generation and low valuation at around 4.5 to 5 times expected earnings.
Hochschild Mining’s target price has also been raised sharply to £4.30 from £3.00, reflecting higher earnings forecasts as gold prices rise.
AngloGold Ashanti, which is listed in Johannesburg and New York, has had its target price lifted from $33 to $53, or from 622 rand to 1,001 rand for its South African listing.
JPMorgan’s latest price forecasts for gold itself are now $3,300 an ounce for 2025 and $3,600 for 2026, up 22% and 27% respectively from previous estimates. That said, JPM says the yellow metal could conceivably hit $4,000 by this time next year.
Analysts expect strong support from central banks and investors looking for a safe haven amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, rising inflationary pressures, and uncertainty over tariffs.
While gold has become a popular safe-haven bet this year, the US bank believes investors are still underestimating the longer-term potential for the sector if the metal’s price continues to climb.
Based on its $4,100 gold price forecast for 2026, the bank estimates that earnings across EMEA gold miners could be 40–60% higher than current consensus forecasts.
"The sharp sell-off post-Q1 results has created an opportunity," JPMorgan’s analysts wrote, arguing that the path for gold miners over 2025 looks increasingly attractive, even after this year’s strong start.