First-quarter results from GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) will focus on commentary around the outlook, including interpretation of US policy changes under vaccine sceptic health secretary Robert Kennedy Jnr, including recent vaccine performance in the US and China.
Weakness in the first quarter is anticipated in the US from GSK’s key vaccine franchises, RSV vaccine Arexvy and shingles vaccine Shingrix.
Recovery in these areas will be important to meet the company’s FY25 guidance of a low-single-digit CER decline in vaccine revenues, said UBS.
"We note that the leadership of ACIP, the important group that determines vaccination schedulers and which met last week, have been consistent across two similar ACIP meetings in 2024 and 2023.
"This is reassuring as it suggests no change as yet in the science base of ACIP."
The update may also include GSK’s outlook on the US Medicare Part D redesign, which is expected to result in £400–500 million in additional annual costs.
UBS noted uncertainty around any offsetting volume gains from increased treatment persistence or reduced charity funding needs.
Sector risks include a lack of clarity over potential new tariffs signalled by the Trump administration, with the impact depending on whether they apply only to API transfers or also to IP royalties and transfer pricing.
UBS said investor consensus on this issue remains unclear.
GSK’s exposure to vaccines remains higher than most EU peers, with the exception of Sanofi. UBS said this could add uncertainty given recent public commentary from US policymakers questioning some vaccine-related data.
UBS maintains a Neutral rating and a 12-month price target of 1,600p, versus a closing price of 1,345p on 22 April 2025.