Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) is set to report its first-quarter results on 2 May, with analysts and investors watching closely for signs of pressure on shareholder returns from weaker commodity prices.
The energy giant's shares have retreated from their highs of last year and are down 13% since the start of April as oil and gas prices have dropped sharply amid renewed tariff concerns and global growth fears, with the company also having lost its position as the second-largest company on the FTSE 100 this year.
Shell outlined plans in March to cut operating costs and capital spending, double down on its hydrocarbons strategy -- particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) -- and enhance cash returns.
An April production update poured cold water on investor enthusiasm as output in Integrated Gas was impacted by bad weather and maintenance in Australia, contributing to a cautious outlook for Q1.
Consensus forecasts suggest adjusted earnings of $5 billion, down sharply from $7.7 billion a year ago, with the decline expected to come largely from Shell’s Integrated Gas and Chemicals divisions. Renewables and Energy Solutions are also likely to show weaker performance in the quarter.
Capital returns have been rich for shareholders, with Shell paying out $22.6 billion in 2024, equivalent to 11.5% of its current market cap, and launched a $3.5 billion buyback for Q1 -- up from $2.8 billion in the same period last year. The dividend was also nudged higher in Q4 2024 to $0.358 per share.