HSBC Holdings PLC (LSE:HSBA) reports first-quarter results next Tuesday, 29 April, with investor attention sharply focused on its outlook for Asia, capital return plans, and the impact of US tariffs.
The bank's shares had surged close to their 2001 all-time high in March, enabling it to overtake Shell as the second largest company on the FTSE 100 by market cap, still retaining this position even with around a 16% fall following the 2 April announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump.
Markets will be watching to see whether chief executive Georges Elhedery maintains the upbeat tone struck during February’s full-year results, when the bank hiked its dividend, launched a $2 billion buyback, and raised its 2026-27 return on equity targets.
Elhedery outlined new targets for $300 million in cost reductions in 2025 and a $1.5 billion reduction in the cost base by the end of 2026, though the job cuts will require £1.8 billion in severance and other costs, with job cutting already having begun.
Asia remains the core driver of HSBC's earnings, contributing three-quarters of pre-tax profit in 2024, so commentary on regional momentum and policy risks will be key, said analysts at AJ Bell.
Elhedery suggested HSBC would double down on investment banking in Asia and the Middle East, after scaling back operations in Europe and the US, according to an interview he gave last month.
The City will generally be watching closely for updates on loan and deposit growth, net interest margins (which were 1.56% last year), and loan impairment charges, expected to rise to $868 million, up from $720 million last year.
As for shareholder returns, the consensus forecast is for an increase in the full-year dividend to $0.665 (from $0.61), equivalent to a yield above 6%, with additional buybacks potentially lifting the total shareholder return to over 12% of the bank’s current market cap.