By the time the cargo cranes swing into position over the Port of Los Angeles in early May, they’ll be lifting a little less steel than usual.
UBS data suggest import volumes into the US West Coast could fall by as much as 35% compared to last year, driven by trade tensions and a fresh round of tariffs.
It’s a sharp pullback that gives shape to the increasingly fraught intersection of geopolitics and global commerce.
At the heart of this contraction is Asia-to-US shipping.
New quotes from ocean carriers show a mixed picture: spot prices from China to the US West Coast rose by double digits last week, even as overall volumes dropped.
It’s a classic supply-and-demand mismatch. Carriers are “blanking” (cancelling) sailings in bulk to cope with collapsing volume. These cancellations, UBS says, are a good proxy for how much traffic is actually falling.
Analysts at the Swiss bank suggest up to 30% of shipping capacity between Asia and the US West Coast has been pulled for the coming weeks.
The reasons? Well, quelle surprise, President Trump’s latest round of tariffs, set at an eye-watering 145% on Chinese imports, has ratcheted up the pressure.
While the White House has signalled a willingness to ease that rate, there’s no clear timeline.
If trade picks up again during peak season while capacity is still constrained, freight rates could surge, a headache for importers and a boon for carriers.
However, UBS cautions that even a 60% tariff would remain “prohibitive” for many US buyers.
The implications for UK investors? Beyond the obvious knock-on to shipping firms like Maersk or Hapag-Lloyd, the broader message is this: Volatility in freight isn’t just about oil prices or demand in Europe anymore.
It’s about politics, policy...and unpredictability.