If artificial intelligence had a red carpet, the Big Four, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, would be the ones hogging the flashbulbs.
Their multi-billion-dollar investments and slick demos dominate headlines. But among the bit-part players, something more interesting is happening.
A quieter, broader wave of investment is building, and UBS thinks this could be the smart money’s next move.
In its latest research-based blog is a useful map for anyone trying to navigate the sprawling AI terrain.
The message? Don’t just chase the stars. The action is spreading far and wide; across industries, countries and companies you might not have on your radar.
The rise of the rest
UBS analysts estimate that the share of AI investment flowing to companies outside the Big Four will more than double, from under 20% in 2023 to over 40% this year.
That’s not a small shift. It’s a structural rebalancing of a sector that, until recently, looked like a members-only club.
So who’s benefiting? The UBS team points to a mix of “neocloud” players like CoreWeave and Lambda; smaller data-centre specialists focused solely on AI.
And there are the rising Chinese contenders backed by low-cost models and strong government support. Enterprise software giants like Oracle and sovereign players such as SoftBank are also in the mix.
Altogether, UBS reckons AI spending outside the Big Four could hit $150 billion in 2025, up 85% on last year. That’s real money, not hype.
Capex tells the story
For investors, capital expenditure (capex) is often a better guide to future trends than revenue.
It shows who’s putting money where their mouth is. UBS expects global AI capex to grow 60% in 2025, reaching $360 billion.
And it’s not all graphics chips. Spending is also pouring into networking gear, high-bandwidth memory and industrial kit: Cooling systems, power supplies and everything else needed to keep AI servers humming.
That’s good news for investors looking beyond the obvious. UBS highlights power and resource infrastructure as a secondary play with strong tailwinds.
Early adopters are already reaping rewards
Sceptics might argue that AI revenues still lag the eye-watering capex, but UBS says that gap is narrowing.
It helps to look at productivity gains, not just sales. Take Meta, for example. Revenue per employee has jumped 64% since 2022. Klarna, the Swedish fintech, saw a 140% surge in the same metric.
AI isn’t just promising efficiencies, it’s already delivering them.
Who’s using AI? Not who you might think
The biggest surprise in the UBS note is where adoption is happening.
Data from the US Census Bureau shows AI uptake growing steadily across sectors, not just in tech.
Between late 2024 and early 2025, adoption rates rose fastest in industries like manufacturing, media, and wholesale trade.
Even more interesting? Small businesses are getting in on the act faster than mid-sized firms. UBS attributes this to the radical automation AI offers: Small firms can do more with fewer people, levelling the playing field against larger rivals.
What this means for investors
For those already holding big tech, this isn’t a sell signal. Microsoft and friends still command huge moats and will continue to shape AI infrastructure.
But the market’s centre of gravity is shifting, and investors may want to tilt portfolios accordingly.
UBS’s takeaway is clear: Diversify your exposure.
Beyond the Big Four, AI semiconductors, specialist cloud infrastructure, and emerging Chinese players offer new entry points. And with adoption widening across sectors and company sizes, it’s a theme with far broader appeal than many think.
AI’s future isn’t just being written in Silicon Valley.
It’s being sketched in server farms, warehouses, and factory floors across the world. The spotlight may still be fixed on the stars, but the next act could belong to the ensemble cast.