Wall Street enters a critical stretch this week as first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with investors watching for updates from Tesla, Alphabet, Boeing and Intel alongside a busy slate of economic data and continued trade policy uncertainty.
The earnings calendar is stacked with marquee names. In addition to the aforementioned companies, this week sees IBM, AT&T, P&G, Merck and Verizon dropping earnings as well.
The earnings should offer insights into how corporate America is navigating a backdrop of sticky inflation, tariff tensions and uneven consumer sentiment.
At the same time, economic releases—including flash PMIs, existing home sales, durable goods, jobless claims and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey—will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move. The Fed’s Beige Book, out Wednesday, may provide further clues on how regional economies are faring amid shifting monetary and fiscal policy.
But Deutsche Bank analysts warned that many of this week’s data points “refer to March, before the April 2nd tariff announcements, their subsequent modifications, and the resultant market volatility.” That makes them “somewhat stale,” the bank noted, urging caution in drawing broad conclusions from backward-looking reports.
More current indicators, like Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s final reading on consumer sentiment, may offer clearer signals—but even these carry caveats. “Issues with seasonal adjustment around Easter can sometimes generate excess volatility,” Deutsche Bank said, suggesting investors take claims data “with a slightly larger than usual grain of salt.”
Fed speak
Markets will also be listening closely to commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed’s Alberto Musalem, though most are expected to stay on-message following recent speeches.
Trade headlines and potential developments in the Republican tax agenda could add another layer of volatility. Deutsche Bank recently updated its US economic forecasts to account for recent tariff moves, projecting growth to slow to 0.9% in 2025 and inflation to remain elevated. “Our forecast creates a tension for the Fed,” the bank said, noting that while inflation risks argue for tighter policy, weaker growth supports easing later this year.
The bank expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in December, with two more cuts in early 2026, eventually bringing the federal funds rate into the 3.5–3.75% range.
With so many moving pieces—from tech earnings to trade policy to inflation expectations—investors may find that this week brings more questions than answers.