North American metals and mining companies are set to begin reporting first-quarter 2025 earnings this week, with investor focus turning sharply to the demand outlook in light of accelerating global tariffs, according to a new note from Bank of America.
“Key issues to watch are updated tariff-informed demand outlooks, cost pressures vs. relief associated with tariffs, and new capacity hesitancy,” analysts wrote, as Alcoa (AA) kicks off the reporting season today.
Bank of America named Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (TSX:AEM), Cameco Corporation (TSX:CCO), Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSX:IVN, OTCQX:IVPAF), and Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ:STLD) as its top picks for 2025, highlighting strong positioning across key commodities. Analysts said they are “very constructive” on gold, see value in uranium, and favor copper for long-term investors.
Among sub-sectors, gold miners are expected to be the standouts. With prices hitting record highs—averaging $2,862/oz in Q1, up 38% year-over-year—and strong free cash flow, the spotlight will fall on how companies choose to deploy capital.
“Recent commentary points to growth as a priority over capital returns,” the analysts wrote. “Those that instead prioritize capital returns should see their share prices outperform.”
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to pose challenges, particularly for companies operating in emerging markets. Bank of America flagged jurisdictional uncertainty in Panama, Mali, and Türkiye as key issues for First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM), Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX, NYSE:GOLD), Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG), Eldorado Gold Corp (TSX:ELD), and SSR Mining (SSRM).
In steel, US hot-rolled coil prices have jumped in early 2025, but investor sentiment remains cautious amid fears of weakening demand later in the year. In uranium, Bank of America noted a near-freeze in utility purchases due to tariff-related uncertainty and the Russia-Ukraine war.
Rare earths are also in the spotlight, with MP Materials (MP) caught in the crossfire of US-China trade tensions. The firm recently raised its price objective for MP to $30 from $26, noting it “increasingly view[s] MP as a highly strategic company within the US for economic, strategic, and national security.”
March also saw a resurgence in gold ETF flows, led by $6.5 billion in North America. Analysts suggested “the inflows in March were likely driven by the strong gold price momentum and tariff and war uncertainty,” reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe haven amid geopolitical turbulence.