The American bank has raised its near-term copper price target, saying the metal’s downside risk has eased, though it still expects a fall as US tariffs bite and demand weakens.
Citi has moderated its bearish stance on copper, lifting its three-month price forecast to $8,800/t from $8,000, but said it still expects prices to drift lower over the next two quarters as consumption slows.
In its latest Metal Matters note, the bank said it remained bearish over the next three to six months, citing “a significant weakening of physical copper consumption and manufacturing activity” following the United States’ newly imposed tariffs.
These include a 10% tariff on most countries and a 145% rate on Chinese copper, introduced in recent weeks.
Despite that, the bank said copper’s short-term “bearish price risk profile has eased” due to several offsetting factors. These included “evidence of a likely ‘Trump put’,” referring to investor expectations of policy support; “surprising strength of China physical dip-buying”; and “sustained scrap market tightness due to US scrap stockpiling.”
Citi said that while it had previously expected a sharp correction, the recent shift in market dynamics pointed instead to “a more gradual copper price decline through the second quarter versus the deeper and faster investor sell-off we previously anticipated.”
The bank’s updated forecast puts the average copper price at $9,000/t for the second quarter of 2025. It also lifted its aluminium forecast to $2,300/t in the next three months, and $2,400/t for the quarter.
The update follows last week’s CESCO industry conference in Santiago, where Citi said discussions confirmed broad concerns around physical demand and Chinese trade flows.
However, it noted that bullish fund positioning had remained intact, suggesting investors are not yet turning outright negative.
Citi did not change its medium-term outlook, maintaining a cautious stance on the strength of global industrial demand, particularly in the face of escalating trade tensions.