Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned that the US is “very close to a recession” and could face “something worse” if President Donald Trump’s trade policies are not managed properly.
“I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”
Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates and known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, said that the combination of tariffs, debt levels, and geopolitical tensions has created a highly unstable environment.
“If you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power … those changes in the orders, the systems, are very, very disruptive,” he said. “How that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession. Or it could be handled well.”
Dalio criticized the Trump administration’s approach, calling it “very disruptive” and likening the tariffs to “throwing rocks into the production system.”
The comments follow a turbulent week in global markets after Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, though some items like smartphones and monitors will be exempt. Trump also announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs outside of China.
Dalio urged Congress to adopt what he called the “3% pledge” to reduce the budget deficit, warning of a “supply and demand problem for debt with results that will be worse than a normal recession.”