4:20pm: Tariff relief lifts shares
Stock markets ended the day on a positive note, with tech stocks leading the charge after President Trump announced tariff exemptions on key electronic components like smartphones, computers, and semiconductors.
The Dow climbed 312 points (+0.8%) to finish at 40,525, driven by strong performances from Apple and Intel. The S&P 500 gained 43 points (+0.8%), closing at 5,406, with tech and communication services sectors taking the lead. The Nasdaq rose 107 points (+0.6%) to 16,831, helped by a jump in semiconductor stocks, while small-cap stocks shone, pushing the Russell 2000 up by 21 points (+1.1%) to 1,881.
The tariff exemptions provided some much-needed clarity, easing supply chain concerns and boosting investor confidence across the board.
2:55pm: Caution still in the air
Stocks are having a solid day Monday afternoon, with all three major indexes in the green. The Dow is up 1.1%, the S&P 500 has climbed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq is up about 1%, thanks in large part to a weekend announcement that gave markets a boost—at least for now.
The good news? The government has temporarily paused tariffs on key tech products like smartphones and computers. That’s been enough to lift investor spirits, especially in the tech sector. But there’s a catch: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and President Trump have both hinted that this reprieve might not last, which means uncertainty is still hanging over the market.
For now, though, investors are enjoying the break, even as they keep one eye on what could come next in the ongoing trade saga.
2:03pm: Nvidia unveils $500B US AI manufacturing push
Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA, ETR:NVD) announced that it plans to produce up to $500 billion of AI infrastructure in the United States over the next four years through its partnerships with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), Foxconn, Wistron, Amkor and SPIL.
This includes designing and building factories to produce Nvidia AI supercomputers entirely in the US for the first time.
The company said it has commissioned production space in Arizona and Texas.
Production of its latest Blackwell AI chips has already started at TSMC’s facility in Phoenix, Arizona.
1:05pm: Sleepy session
A calmer trading day has allowed stocks to maintain their recovery from the volatility seen last week, according to Chris Beauchamp, senior analyst at IG.
“The US president might be changing his tariff policy on a daily basis, but that hasn’t stopped stocks from continuing their short-term recovery from last week’s lows," Beauchamp wrote Monday.
"Today is a very sleepy session at the index level when compared with the madcap trading of the past two weeks, but for the moment a steady drift higher seems the most likely path assuming tariff headlines remain off everyone’s screens.”
12:18pm: Stocks mixed
Stocks were mixed at midday Monday, with the Nasdaq trading flat while the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 each posted modest gains of about 0.2%.
While industrial and consumer stocks helped lift the Dow and S&P 500, tech shares were relatively unchanged, weighing on the Nasdaq. The tech-heavy index had previously seen support from news of tariff exemptions on certain technology products, which may be contributing to its stability despite the lack of upward momentum today.
Investors remain focused on developments in trade policy and economic data, with particular attention on how these factors may impact growth in the tech sector and broader equity markets.
“The initial rally, while strong, met resistance as details on the tariff policy emerged, revealing greater complexity,” said Quasar Elizundia, Expert Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
“The White House and officials including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick were quick to clarify the situation. It became clear that this was not a full exemption, but rather a temporary reclassification or, more significantly, a prelude to new targeted tariffs under a proposed ‘semiconductor tariff’ category set to take effect in the near future.”
Elizundia added that the “lack of clarity and the prospect of upcoming sector-specific duties effectively capped further market gains,” describing the relief as “real but fragile, intrinsically tied to the next phase of U.S. tariff policy.”
11:51am: Citi turns bearish
Citi has lowered its 2025 year-end S&P 500 target to 5,800, revising its index earnings forecast down to $255 from a prior $270.
The adjustment reflects the expected impact of new tariffs and emerging signs of macroeconomic slowing.
The bank also sees room for valuation compression due to heightened policy uncertainty.
Despite the downward revision, Citi remains constructive on U.S. equities, noting that the upside potential to its bull case outweighs the downside to its bear case. As a result, the firm sees a favorable risk-reward setup for the remainder of the year, particularly on market pullbacks.
11:10am: Goldman earnings reactions
Goldman turned up the dial on buybacks in Q1, signaling confidence in its capital base with a $4.4 billion repurchase and a massive new $40 billion authorization, Jefferies analysts wrote following the bank's Q1 results released earier today.
Analysts highlighted strong trading results and the firm's first profitable quarter in Platform Solutions.
Jefferies also singled out first-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $14.12, surpassing the consensus estimate of $12.33, reflecting continued strength in trading.
Total revenue exceeded expectations by $337 million, with equity trading accounting for the bulk of the beat, coming in $496 million above consensus.
The compensation ratio, excluding provisions, was 33%, slightly below the consensus of 33.3%. The investment banking backlog increased quarter-over-quarter, while the firm posted an efficiency ratio of 60.6%, just above its long-term target of 60%.
Share repurchases totaled $4.4 billion, significantly higher than the $1.9 billion expected, and the firm approved a new $40 billion buyback authorization. Return on tangible common equity stood at 18%, with the price-to-tangible book value ratio at 1.5x, Jefferies noted.
10:35am: Week ahead
Investors are preparing for another potentially turbulent week in financial markets as they face a barrage of economic data, Federal Reserve commentary, and key corporate earnings, all against the backdrop of lingering uncertainty around inflation, trade policy, and interest rates.
Following what Deutsche Bank described as “another historically volatile week for markets,” the days ahead could be equally unsettled, particularly with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak Wednesday at the Economic Club of Chicago. The timing is crucial, coming just days before a long Easter weekend when both bond and equity markets will be closed for Good Friday.
"Powell's speech will be most in focus for investors this week," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a Monday note, adding that recent comments from Fed officials have emphasized a growing concern over persistent inflation. Policymakers have reiterated that it is their “obligation” to defend price stability and avoid inflation expectations becoming unanchored.
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9:50am: Wall Street extends gains
Wall Street kicked off the week on a strong note Monday, with all three major indexes climbing sharply in early trading as investors cheered fresh tariff relief for technology products and upbeat corporate earnings.
At the open, the Dow Jones rose 333 points, or 0.8%, to 40,540. The S&P 500 gained 67 points, or 1.3%, to 5,430, while the Nasdaq outpaced its peers with a 208-point jump, also up 1.3%, to 16,936.
Technology stocks led the advance after the White House announced temporary tariff exemptions on key electronic products over the weekend. The move—aimed at easing pressure on supply chains—includes waivers on levies for smartphones, computers, and semiconductors, sparking a rally in shares of major tech firms.
Apple surged 6% in early trading, while Nvidia added 3% and Dell soared more than 8%, helping lift the broader market. The exemptions alleviated fears of rising costs in the sector and spurred a wave of investor optimism.
Adding to the bullish mood were strong earnings results from Goldman Sachs, which beat analyst expectations and saw its stock climb nearly 3%. The positive start to earnings season helped reinforce confidence in the resilience of corporate America.
Meanwhile, a slight dip in Treasury yields offered additional support. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note edged down to 4.43%, easing financing conditions and further encouraging risk-taking.
8.20pm: Opec cuts oil demand forecast for this year and next
Opec has cut its oil demand forecast this year and next due to the US trade tariffs.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the group of oil-producing countries said its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was revised down slightly to 1.30 million barrels per day (mb/d) year on year. This is down from its previous forecast of 1.45 mb/d.
For 2026, it now forecasts 1.28 mb/d growth, down from its previous forecast of 1.43 mb/d.
This is a "minor adjustment", the cartel said, mainly due to received data for the first quarter and "the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs".
While the global economy was in a "steady" growth trend at the beginning of the year, Opec said, "the near-term trajectory is now subject to higher uncertainty given the recent tariff-related dynamics".
It therefore cut its global economic growth forecasts slightly to 3.0% for 2025, and to 3.1% for 2026. US economic growth forecasts are revised down to 2.1% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026.
8am: Apple and Nasdaq set to lead further rally
US stock indices are expected to continue rallying on Monday, where they left off last week, following the exemption from 'reciprocal' tariffs for smartphones and computers.
Tech companies were predicted to lead the gains at the start of the week, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising 1.7%, followed by a 1.5% gain for S^P 500 futures and 1% for the Dow Jones.
This would build on the recovery seen on Wall Street last week, where the S&P 500 added 1.8% on Friday and 7.8% over the week, with the Nasdaq rising over 2% on the day and 9% over five sessions, and the Dow Jones almost 1.6% and 7.8%, respectively.
The latest comments from Donald Trump on 'reciprocal' tariffs were that his precise policy on semiconductors would be shared in the next few days, after news of an exemption for smartphones and computers boosted markets at the end of last week.
In a social media post he said "there was no tariff 'exception' announced on Friday", just that smartphones, computers and some other electronics "are just moving to a different tariff 'bucket'."
The US President said the White House is "taking a look at semiconductors and the whole electronics supply chain in the upcoming national security tariff investigations."
Speaking to the media on Air Force One as he travelled back to Washington from Florida, Trump said on Sunday said he would be announcing the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, adding that there would be flexibility on some companies in the sector, with a final decision on phones made "soon".
Apple was a big pre-market mover as a result, up 5.6%, with Nvidia up 3.3%.
First-quarter earnings season picks up a gear this week, though analysts said many reports will be overshadowed by trade issues.
"Investors will pay particularly close attention to forward guidance, and how the tariff outlook is seen as affecting future business," said market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
Goldman Sachs is the big name reporting this morning, with the bank's earnings coming in stronger than expected and a $40 billion share buyback announced alongside this.