- FTSE 100 climbs 181 points to 8,145
- Markets boosted by optimism about US tariff exceptions
- Pound up as US dollar continues to weaken
- Government races to save British Steel's two blast furnaces
4.12pm: Good gains for the FTSE
The FTSE 100 is heading toward stumps on Monday, on course to add around 180 points or 2.2% at around 8145.
There are only two fallers on the index (BAT and LSE, although down less than 0.2%.)
Top of the blue-chip honours board are Melrose Industries, Barclays and ConvaTec.
Today's has been a "very sleep session" for the index, comared to the madcap volatility in the past fortnight, says market analyst Chris Beauchamp at IG, a man who you can tell appreciated Test cricket above the short-form game.
"The US president might be changing his tariff policy on a daily basis, but that hasn’t stopped stocks from continuing their short-term recovery from last week’s lows," he says.
For the moment, he says it seems like "a steady drift higher seems the most likely path assuming tariff headlines remain off everyone’s screens".
Beauchamp also draws attention to the Goldman Sachs earnings as "like a microcosm of earnings season itself", with good numbers for the most recent quarter, "but worries about what comes next".
"The turmoil in markets will be a boon for the sector in terms of trading activity, but a recession will hit big banks hard in terms of lending activity, meaning a retest of last week’s lows cannot be ruled out."
3.48pm: China doing deals with neighbours in wake of US tariffs
China has signed an agreement with Vietnam in the wake of Donald Trump slapping both countries with high 'reciprocal' tarifffs.
President Xi Jinping has signed a hatful of agreements with Vietnam, including accords to enhance supply chains and others to strenghten cooperation over railways.
Vietnam’s deputy prime minister said over the weekend that around 40 agreements would be signed.
As well as China's 145% tariff, Vietnam goods will be charged a 46% levy for any US buyers once Trump's 90-day pause is lifted.
To Lam, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee, held a grand welcome ceremony in Hanoi on Monday for Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Chinese president, who arrived in Hanoi earlier in the day for a… pic.twitter.com/OjqJAEyunB
— China Xinhua News (@XHNews) April 14, 2025
The U.S. government over the weekend quietly granted exemptions from the so-called "#ReciprocalTariffs" for electronic products, which may reflect that it has shot itself in the foot by rolling out an expansive global tariff agenda. https://t.co/qyMtzVQSmp pic.twitter.com/XFFB8UhAvP
— China Xinhua News (@XHNews) April 14, 2025
3.40pm: China selling US dollar assets?
With the moves lower in US bonds that many thought were weird, the question has been asked if China is offloading its US dollar assets?
Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics is here to answer that.
"Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market," he writes.
"But circumstantial evidence suggests otherwise."
He notes that China’s main state institutions own at least $3 trillion in dollar assets, so that's more than half of their portfolios invested in US markets, despite the geopolitical pressures of recent years.
"A fire sale of these assets would impoverish China more than it would hurt the US," he says, but adds that China’s reserve managers most probably were one of the many sellers in the market last week.
In more detail, he says the only circumstance in which selling them off might make sense would be if China believed that the US was about to freeze or default on its obligations to Chinese investors, and any fire sale would probably just see the Fed step in as a buyer or last resort.
2:53pm: Wall Street extends gains
Wall Street kicked off the week on a strong note, with all three major indexes climbing sharply in early trading as investors cheered fresh tariff relief for technology products and upbeat corporate earnings.
At the open, the Dow Jones rose 333 points, or 0.8%, to 40,540. The S&P 500 gained 67 points, or 1.3%, to 5,430, while the Nasdaq outpaced its peers with a 208-point jump, also up 1.3%, to 16,936.
Technology stocks led the advance after the White House announced temporary tariff exemptions on key electronic products over the weekend. The move -- aimed at easing pressure on supply chains -- includes waivers on levies for smartphones, computers, with clarification on semiconductors promised by President Trump for this week, sparking a rally in shares of major tech firms.
Apple surged 6% in early trading, while Nvidia added 3% and Dell soared more than 8%, helping lift the broader market. The exemptions alleviated fears of rising costs in the sector and spurred a wave of investor optimism.
Adding to the bullish mood were strong earnings results from Goldman Sachs, which beat analyst expectations and saw its stock climb nearly 3%. The positive start to earnings season helped reinforce confidence in the resilience of corporate America.
Meanwhile, a slight dip in Treasury yields offered additional support. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note edged down to 4.43%, easing financing conditions and further encouraging risk-taking.
1.30pm: Barest of wobbles
Oil prices are little moved.
Brent crude is up 1.5% today still, at $65.7 a barrel, and WTI is up 1.55% at $62.45.
Similarly, BP and Shell prices are still up, 4.9% and 2.9% respectively, with the barest of wobbles on the Opec report.
1.17pm: Opec cuts oil demand forecast for this year and next
Opec has cut its oil demand forecast this year and next due to the trade war.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the group of oil-producing countries said its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 was revised down slightly to 1.30 million barrels per day (mb/d) year on year. This is down from its previous forecast of 1.45 mb/d.
For 2026, it now forecasts 1.28 mb/d growth, down from its previous forecast of 1.43 mb/d.
This is a "minor adjustment", the cartel said, mainly due to received data for the first quarter and "the expected impact on oil demand given recently announced US tariffs".
12.56pm: Goldman earnings beat forecasts
As US earnings season kicks into gear this week, Goldman Sachs is the big name reporting this morning, with the bank's earnings coming in stronger than expected.
A $40 billion share buyback has also been announced alongside this.
Earnings per share came in at $14.12, versus the $12.26 consensus estimate, on revenues of $15.06 billion, which also beat the $14.76 billion Wall Street call.
Fixed income and currency sales and trading revenues of $4.40 billion were a tad shy of forecasts, while equities trading at $4.19 billion was better than expected.
Net interest income of $2.9 billion was a beat, while invstment banking at $1.9 billion was a miss.
The shares are up 1.3% pre-market.
12.47pm: Gold update
Gold, which notched new record highs above $3,245 an ounce on Friday, has dipped below $3,210 in the past hour.
After the blistering rally in gold in recent months, UBS has now lifted its year-end gold price forecast to $3,500, up $300 from its previous estimate.
Analyst Joni Teves at the Swiss bank cited strong demand from central banks and investors, tightening supply and a flight to safety amid rising global uncertainty.
Teves said she now expects central banks to buy 1,000 metric tons of gold this year, an increase from her earlier estimate of 950 tons.
An upgrade from Goldman Sachs on Friday estimated gold would trade between $3,650 and $3,950 depending on how recession risks evolve.
12.20pm: Almost everything is higher
Into the afternoon, the FTSE 100 and other European stock indices remain strongly higher.
London's blue-chip index is up 1.7% at just over 8,100, slightly off its earlier highs, while across the Channel, there are gains of over 2% for all the main benchmarks.
US futures are also pointing higher, with those for the Nasdaq 100 up 1.8%, followed by 1.5% for the S&P 500 and 1% for the Dow Jones.
On the Footsie, ConvaTec Group PLC (LSE:CTEC) is the top riser as investors react to a delay announced by the federal agency that administers the US Medicare and Medicaid programmes at the end of last week.
BP is next, up 4.7% on the London leaderboard, after the oiler announced a deepwater oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, or Gulf of America as Donald Trump calls it, which the oil company used to highlight its exposure to the USA.
Oil prices are also giving a boost, with Brent up 1.3% to $65 a barrel.
JD Sports and Barclays are next, up over 4%, followed by easyJet, Sainsbury's and Melrose next, all up over 3%.
The FTSE 250 is up almost 2%, with Future PLC, Raspberry Pi, Moonpig and Watches of Switzerland top risers.
Ashmore is the big faller, following its update earlier, even if it flagged a robust reaction for emerging markets in the past two weeks.
11.42am: Financial stability threatened by trade war, IMF warns
In case you were not paying attention, the IMF has warned that "global geopolitical risks remain elevated, raising concerns about their potential impact on economic and financial stability".
"Shocks such as wars, diplomatic tensions, or terrorism can disrupt cross-border trade and investment," says the helpful briefing from the IMF as it launches its latest Global Financial Stability report.
These shocks can hurt asset prices, the IMF says, which will be well known to anyone with shares in US tech companies.
But it can also curtail lending to the private sector, weighing on economic activity and posing a threat to financial stability, the Washington-based organisation warns.
One chapter of the latest report shows - shock horror - that stock prices tend to decline significantly during major geopolitical risk events
10.38am: BP oil discovery gives opportunity to highlight US connection
BP PLC (LSE:BP.) has announced a deepwater oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, or as it calls it, the US deepwater Gulf of America.
The FTSE 100 oil giant said as the Far South propsect it drilled an exploration well approximately 120 miles off the coast of Louisiana in 4,092 feet of water, with the well drilled to a total depth of 23,830 feet.
Far South is 57.5% owned by BP, with Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX, ETR:CHV) owning the remaining 42.5%.
"This discovery in the deepwater Gulf of America underscores how BP is in action to step up investment in exploration and strengthen its upstream portfolio," the company said, referring to its strategy 'reset' from February.
The oil group expects to grow its global upstream production to 2.3-2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2030, with around 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day expected to be delivered from onshore and offshore US.
10.20am: Rollercoaster markets
The market "whipsaw" effect is continuing into another week, says Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, "with investors buffeted by conflicting signals which has made any thoughts of equilibrium a distant dream for the time being".
Trump's tariff exemption on smartphones and some other electronic products was a "rare chink of light" in the Sino-American trade relationship, he adds, which boosted the shares in the likes of Apple and Nvidia.
"There was also some optimism towards the possibility of a broader deal between the economic powerhouses, although some of this was tempered by comments that other tariffs are on the way," says Hunter.
"This constantly changing rhetoric has left investors, businesses and consumers paralysed, unable to plan with any confidence or certainty."
Last week was main US indices endured one of the most volatile weeks on record, he reminded, with Wall Street stocks ending the week solidly higher but remaining well underwater in the year to date, with losses 8.8% for the S&P 500 and 13.4% for the Nasdaq.
"Of late, economic releases have become something of a sideshow," he says, with investors still looking forward rather than examine what are mostly lagging indicators.
Bonds have steadied but remain elevated, which Hunter says implies "tightening financial conditions which could impact on the housing market, as well as adding another layer of complexity to the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates".
9.59am: Kainos klimbs
Shares in Kainos Group PLC (LSE:KNOS) are up 6% to 670.8p, climbing off a recent near-five-year low, as the IT products and services provider has reassured with a year-end trading update.
The FTSE 250-listed group said it had enjoyed a "solid" performance in its fourth quarter to 31 March, "underpinned by a disciplined approach to costs" and the board expects that revenues and adjusted profit before tax will be in line with consensus forecasts.
Analyst Peter McNally at Stifel says he is glad to see the UK government-exposed Digital Services division improve slightly in the second half, "indicating the declines of the recent past could be reversing as we approach the full Spending Review due in June, when longer term UK government spending plans should be put into place and be of benefit to Kainos, in our view".
9.36am: British Steel nail-biter
Away from the markets, a big story in the UK this morning is that the government is working hard to save the country's last primary steelmaking plant.
British Steel was taken over by the government on Saturday from Chinese owner Jingye, which declined government support to keep the Scunthorpe plant running.
Jingye failed to stockpile enough raw materials -- principally iron ore and coking coal -- to keep the two Scunthorpe blast furnaces burning. If the furnaces cool too much, they could be irreparably damaged.
Treasury minister James Murray said the government was "doing everything we can" to get the raw materials to the site in time, telling Sky News this morning that the coal "is in the UK".
"There’s a process of getting it into the blast furnaces. There’s a slight limit on what I can say because of commercial decisions being taken, but we’re doing everything we can to get that coal into the blast furnaces to make sure that the operations continue."
9.10am: Sony hikes PlayStation price (due to tariffs)
Sony said it has made the "tough" decision to hike the price of its PlayStation 5 console 25% in the wake of the US tariffs on China, where much of the device's manufacturing is undertaken.
The Japanese company announced the price increase for Europe and the UK, with a similar increase expected to be made in North America.
Its Sony Interactive Entertainment arm withheld from blaming tariffs directly, citing "a backdrop of a challenging economic environment, including high inflation and fluctuating exchange rates".
It therefore "made the tough decision to raise the recommended retail price (RRP) of the PlayStation 5 console in select markets in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Australia and New Zealand", the company said on its PlayStation blog.
The PS5 will cost €499.99 in Europe and £429.99 in the UK from today.
8.59am: Apple has one or two months to move supply chain, India may benefit
Showing the impact of the tariffs on the biggest company on Wall Street, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is expected to see 2025 and 2026 forecasts fall around 10%.
A note from US broker Wedbush sees this based on "demand destruction and cost increases", with a worst case "disaster scenario" assuming no China negotiations and tariffs stay for months leading to 15-20% declines, while a best case of 2-5% in a best case scenario if China negotiations speed up and "cooler heads prevail" by the summer.
Through the chaos and confusion, the broker reckons that Apple has one to two months to plan its supply chain for a tariff component, "with India likely the biggest focus area" for expanded iPhone production.
Apple is expected to get "some breathing room so it does not have to automatically start passing massive price increases to US consumers".
The White House is "showing some flexibility around tech/semi components," which is a positive situation compared to what was previously expected.
8.49am: Emerging markets showing resilience, says Ashmore
Shares in FTSE 250-listed Ashmore Group (LSE:ASHM), the asset manager focused on emerging markets, are down almost 6% as it reported a net outflow of US$3.9 billion and a 5% fall in assets under management for the the past quarter to 31 March.
However, CEO Mark Coombs said emerging markets "performed well" over the first quarter of 2025, and the company's fiscal third, "on the back of economic resilience together with the benefit of a weaker US dollar and strength in the euro".
Since the start of April, with market volatility having heightened after the launch of US tariffs, Coombs highlighted that a 1% decline in the US Treasury index and a 2% decline in US high-yield bonds, Emerging Markets fixed income index is down by less than 2%, and Emerging Markets equities performance is in line with the US, which he said reflected "the diversity and resilience" of the region.
He said a weaker US dollar "will be supportive for the performance of emerging markets".
8.27am: Pound near six-month high
The US dollar is in the spotlight this morning as it continues to dwindle, though US stock futures are on the up and bond yields are a bit softer.
Sterling is up 0.6% to $1.3165, close to six-month highs for the pound, while the euro is up 0.4% at $1.1402, the highest since early 2022.
The US dollar index, DXY, is down 0.8% to 99.35, continuing below the 100 level that was breached on Friday, down over 4% since the start of April.
Levels below 100 have not been seen for any length of time since early 2022.
President Trump insisted at the end of last week that the dollar would always remain "the currency of choice".
"If a nation said we’re not going to be on the dollar, I would tell you that within about one phone call they would be back on the dollar."
8.13am: FTSE 100 sprints higher
The FTSE 100 has sprinted 113 points higher off the blocks to start the week, climbing 1.4% to 8,077.
US tech investors Polar Capital Technology Trust PLC (LSE:PCT) and Pershing Square Holdings (LSE:PSH) are top of the risers initially, up over 3% both.
Banks are also among the gainers, led by those with significant investment banking arms, Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC), and with a China focus, Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) and HSBC Holdings PLC (LSE:HSBA).
Shell and BP are also among the risers, with crude oil prices remaining fairly steady this morning.
7.53am: Trump clarification on semiconductors
The latest comments from Donald Trump on tariffs is that "there was no tariff 'exception' announced on Friday".
Instead, he said in a post on his social media platform yesterday that smartphones, computers and some other electronics "remain subject to the existing 20% fentanyl tariffs and they are just moving to a different tariff 'bucket'."
The US President said the White House is "taking a look at semiconductors and the whole electronics supply chain in the upcoming national security tariff investigations. What has been exposed is that we need to make products in the United States, and that we will not be held hostage by other countries".
Speaking to the media on Air Force One as he travelled back to Washington from Florida, Trump said on Sunday said he would be announcing the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, adding that there would be flexibility on some companies in the sector.
7.42am: Sense of relief, or just a Iull in uncertainty?
For markets, the new week starts with a sense of "relief" that the US still seems to be exempting electronics – most of which are made in China – from headline tariffs, says market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank.
Futures are hinting at strong gains across the US and European indices, she notes.
However, major Apple supplier Hon Hai jump-opened in Asia but is giving back gains since then on Trump's comments that the tech sector won’t be exempt from tariffs, they will be in a different tariff bucket.
"Prepare for another week of hectic headlines, uncertainty and high volatility – and thinning holiday volumes into the Easter break won’t help in terms of volatility."
For the week ahead, investors will "have their hands full", says Ozkardeskaya, with a wave of key macroeconomic data and earnings, including inflation figures from Europe, the UK and Canada, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, and earnings from TSMC and Netflix "all unfolding under the shadow of escalating trade tensions".
"Every data point will be dissected through the lens of the growing trade war. While earnings will move stocks, it's the forecasts that truly matter now."
7.31am: New Wood offer from Sidara
John Wood Group PLC (LSE:WG.) has received a cash bid of 35p a share from Dubai-based engineering group Sidara, which the board said it would be minded to accept.
The energy industry services group said Sidara made a "holistic non-binding conditional proposal" that also include a possible capital injection of $450 million.
As a reminder, the two companies were in talks last year about a possible offer priced at 230p per share, before Sidara walked away, citing "rising geopolitical risks and financial market uncertainty at this time".
At this time, they seem to be even higher, but the price - not so much.
7.16am: FTSE 100 to come in hot
The FTSE 100 is expected to come in hot on Monday, though what could happen over the rest of the session may depend on clarification on US tariffs on smartphones and semiconductors later.
On the futures market, the London index has been called 142 points higher, after it finished last week at 7,964.2, gaining 50 points on Friday but losing just over 90 over the five days.
Wall Street's main indices bounced back strongly over the week and finished with upward momentum, with the S&P 500 adding 1.8% on Friday and 7.8% over the week, with the Nasdaq rising over 9% and the Dow Jones almost 8% over the five sessions.
In short, this was on the back of Donald Trump's 90-day tariff delay at the start of the week and a further exemption for electronics from headline tariffs at the end.
Asian markets are on the up this morning, with Japan's Nikkei up 1.5%, the Hang Seng climbing 2% in Hong Kong, and India's Sensex up 1.8%.
What to watch on Monday 14 April
Emerging markets fund manager Ashmore's commentary about the market will be of interest as it gives a third-quarter update, having managed to stem net outflows over the first half of its financial year.
In the US, Goldman Sachs continues the US bank reporting season, sandwiched between several of its Wall Street peers the week before and later this week.
Announcements due:
Trading updates: Ashmore Group
Finals: Concurrent Technologies
US earnings: Goldman Sachs (pre-market)
Economic announcements: Consumer Inflation Expectations (US)