Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, shares his three things to watch in Australia in the coming days.
RBA Minutes (Tuesday)
We’ll be receiving a deeper insight into the RBA’s current outlook, when the RBA’s meeting minutes are released on Tuesday. These minutes will likely only confirm what we already know from earlier statements from both the board and Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock.
Globally, we are seeing the impact of US tariff chaos on forward-planning from core financial institutions, and Australia is not exempt from these ripples of uncertainty.
Bullock has affirmed the Australian financial system is well placed to absorb shocks from the global market – which some may question – but more importantly, she stated that the central bank’s focus “remains on our dual mandate for price stability and full employment”.
A lot has changed globally since the RBA’s rate decision, in which Bullock arguably took a more hawkish stance than expected. Market pricing now shows rates dropping to 2.8% by the end of 2025. For now, a rate cut in May looks firmly on the table, especially as the fight between the two largest nations continues.
AU Unemployment (Thursday)
We’ll also be seeing Australia’s unemployment figures for March this Thursday. With unemployment having remained steady at around 4% for months, we’ll get the latest insight into how the jobs market has been faring and if there has been any movement. Both January and February saw seasonally adjusted unemployment sit at 4.1%, despite February showing that the number of employed Australians fell by 53,000.
February’s rate cut was set to have a notable impact on March’s unemployment figures, something we’ll see the results of this week. The unemployment figure may be pulled below 4% for the first time since November 2024, with the RBA’s first rate cut of the year likely to have boosted optimism and encouraged local businesses to begin hiring more workers.
This decrease in unemployment would be a welcome sign for job seekers, but it raises concerns for economists, as a strong job market could potentially reignite inflation. Despite this, Trump’s tariffs have wreaked havoc on markets for the past few months, making economists predict the RBA’s next rate cut will still take place in May.
Q1 earnings season steps up (Netflix)
We are now in the first big earnings run of 2025, with the Q1 earnings season bursting into play late last week.
Late on Friday major US banks reported, providing a key temperature check on the overall health of the US economy and providing investors and households with a glimpse into the risk of a recession amidst tariff volatility. In short, there’s plenty of concern around economic growth slowing, but bank profits are still well above forecasts.
Elsewhere, US stocks are not forecasting much ambition for 2025. Delta Air Lines has withdrawn its full-year guidance. Retailers Walmart, JD Sports and Levi Strauss & Co are still testing the temperature and reigning in expectations amid tariff turbulence. Even with key tariffs now paused, companies clearly feel they can’t trust that White House economic policy will stay consistent week-to-week, and that’s going to make it difficult to keep any investor base inspired.
Where we will likely see more optimism will be in the earnings from streaming giant Netflix. This will be a landmark report as it’ll be the first time Netflix does not disclose subscriber numbers in its earnings as part of its new policy. Instead, it will report engagement figures (essentially the total time viewers have spent with the service), claiming it is the “best proxy for customer satisfaction”.
Although this will obfuscate one of the most straightforward metrics when evaluating platform health, it’s unlikely to dissuade investors. For Q1, the market expects US$10.5 billion in revenue, which would signal 12% growth, above Netflix’s own guidance of 11%, thanks largely to subscription price increases. Investors should expect a decent-sized move after earnings, either way, with shares swinging on average 9% either way after reporting.
Netflix’s performance speaks for itself, and it has a full catalogue of content exclusives on the horizon. It has cemented its place as the streaming king with over 300 million global subscribers, while double-digit revenue growth and solid free cash flow give it a great foundation for continued growth this year.