US stocks finished higher overnight, which paves the way for a day in the green for the ASX.
ASX 200 futures are up 18pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEST.
The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed 21 points or 0.28% lower at 7,646 last week, clawing back most of its earlier losses after a volatile start. The benchmark fell sharply by 6.5% on Monday but recovered ground following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a 90-day pause on several new tariffs, which helped restore some investor confidence.
Sector performance was mixed, with Information Technology leading the gains, rising 5.99%, followed by Telecommunications Services at 3.09%, Consumer Discretionary at 1.25%, and Consumer Staples at 1.20%. Conversely, Energy was the weakest performer, down 5.29%, while Health Care declined 4.43%, Financials 1.58%, and Materials 1.11%.
Among the top-performing individual stocks, Zip Co surged 15.95%, Northern Star Resources climbed 13.53%, and both Regis Resources and Wisetech Global advanced 12.56%. On the downside, Silex Systems fell 16.17%, Articore dropped 15.79%, Coronado Global Resources lost 14.81%, and Mineral Resources shed 12.03%, each posting double-digit declines.
“This week, the key events on the local calendar are Tuesday's RBA meeting minutes and Thursday's Labour Force report for March. The RBA Board minutes are expected to sound mildly dovish. For the jobs report, the market is looking for the Australian economy to add 35,000 jobs in March and for the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.2%,” IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore noted.
“If the jobs report is weaker than expected, it will further fuel expectations of an RBA rate cut in May, which is currently fully priced in after the recent market turmoil. The rates market starts the week pricing in a cumulative 104bp of RBA rate cuts priced by year end, which would see the RBA's cash rate end the year at 3%.”
Wall Street rallies on trade optimism and Fed support as tech exemptions lift outlook
United States equity markets ended the week on a strong note, buoyed by renewed optimism over potential trade agreements and reassurances from Federal Reserve officials, who signalled readiness to support market stability if necessary.
The Nasdaq Composite led the advance, surging 7.4%, while the S&P 500 jumped 5.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1,897 points, gaining nearly 5% over the week. Futures pointed to further upside on Monday following the post-close announcement of tariff exemptions for smartphones, computers, semiconductors and related equipment.
On the macroeconomic front, March's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in softer than expected, with core PPI rising just 0.1% month-on-month, below the anticipated 0.3% increase. This added to a series of benign inflation indicators, further reducing estimates for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation.
However, consumer confidence showed marked deterioration. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 11% to 50.8 from 57 previously — its fourth consecutive monthly decline. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations rose sharply to 6.7% from 5.0%, the highest level since 1981, highlighting a troubling combination of weakening growth and rising inflation.
In corporate earnings, the first-quarter 2025 results from major banks delivered a mixed picture. Wells Fargo declined 1%, Morgan Stanley edged up 1.4%, while JPMorgan Chase climbed 4% on the back of record revenue figures.
In the week ahead, market attention will remain fixed on trade negotiations, with tensions between the United States and China continuing to dominate sentiment. Investors will also scrutinise quarterly earnings results from major corporates including Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, and Netflix for further insight into sector performance and broader economic resilience.
US retail sales data will offer a snapshot of consumer spending trends. However, the report may hold limited influence, given it reflects activity prior to Trump’s recent "Liberation Day" tariff announcement.
Movements in foreign exchange and fixed income markets will also be closely monitored. The US dollar index (DXY) fell 3% last week, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond jumped 50 basis points to settle at 4.50%, highlighting ongoing volatility in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.
Interest rate expectations remain firmly in focus. The US rates market has now almost fully priced in a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in June, with cumulative cuts of 80 basis points forecast by the end of the year.
European markets dip amid renewed US-China trade tensions
European sharemarkets ended the week lower, weighed down by renewed trade hostilities between China and the United States. Early trade in the northern hemisphere was cautious after China’s Ministry of Finance announced it would raise tariffs on US imports to 125% from 84%, effective 12 April.
- The continent-wide FTSEurofirst 300 index dipped 0.2% on Friday, bringing its weekly decline to 2%.
- In London, the FTSE 100 index fell 0.3%, closing the week 1.1% lower.
Currencies firm against USD
- Currencies were broadly firmer against the US dollar, which dropped to its lowest levels since March 2022.
- The Euro climbed from around US$1.1192 to US$1.1473, settling near US$1.1301 at the US close.
- The Australian dollar rose from US61.90 cents to US63.00 cents and was trading near US62.88 cents.
- The Japanese yen peaked at JPY142.07 per US dollar before moderating to JPY143.80.
Gold surges to record highs
Gold surged to record highs as investors avoided US treasuries and the US dollar weakened.
- Gold futures rose US$67.00, or 2.1%, to US$3,244.50 an ounce, up more than 6% for the week.
- Spot gold was near US$3,236 at the close. Iron ore futures rose US90 cents, or 0.9%, to US$99.95 a tonne.
Oil prices advanced on Friday but still registered weekly declines.
- Brent crude added US$1.43, or 2.3%, to close at US$64.76 a barrel.
- US Nymex crude gained US$1.43, or 2.4%, to US$61.50.
- For the week, Brent fell 1.25% and Nymex shed 0.8%.
Base metal prices rose, supported by a weaker US dollar. Copper futures gained 4.3%, buoyed by lower Chinese inventories and renewed stimulus speculation. Aluminium futures added 2.2%.
What about small caps?
The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) closed 0.27% down to 2,910.10 on Friday. The index finished 1.83% to the green for the week.
News is trickling in this morning, however you can read the following and more throughout the day.
- Antipa Minerals Ltd has provided an update on its ongoing Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) and drilling activities at the Minyari Dome Project in Western Australia. The PFS is progressing on the back of the October 2024 Updated Scoping Study, which confirmed the standalone technical and financial viability of a gold mining and processing operation. Minyari Dome now forms part of the expanded Minyari Project, which incorporates the recently consolidated Wilki and Paterson Projects.
- Titan Minerals Ltd has advanced a 10,000-metre resource drilling campaign at its wholly owned Dynasty Gold Project in southern Ecuador. The company aims to expand its current Mineral Resource of 3.1 million ounces (Moz) of gold and 22 Moz of silver. Drilling has concentrated on the Cerro Verde and Iguana prospects, with 31 diamond holes completed for 7,970 metres. Assay results have been received for 25 holes, with six pending from Cerro Verde.
- Leeuwin Metals Ltd has completed Phase One of its inaugural reverse circulation (RC) drilling program at the 100%-owned Marda Gold Project in Western Australia. The initial 2,000-metre program focused on the Marda Central area, targeting extensions to shallow, high-grade mineralisation near historic open pits. This marks the first stage of a planned 10,000-metre campaign for 2025.