Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT, ETR:WMT) has reiterated its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance during its recent Investor Day in Dallas, maintaining a confident outlook despite expecting a more complex macroeconomic environment and widening its EBIT forecast for the first quarter.
While the company kept its Q1 sales guidance unchanged, it expanded the expected EBIT growth range, citing a soft start in general merchandise, a spike in casualty claims of about $200 million, and flexibility to respond to tariff-related pricing shifts.
Bank of America, which reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating on the company, views Walmart as better positioned than peers to manage the evolving tariff situation.
“Walmart is not immune but positioned well for tariffs,” they wrote.
The analysts noted that more than two-thirds of what Walmart sells in the United States is domestically produced. Of the remaining third, its largest import markets are China and Mexico.
“Walmart's deep relationships with suppliers, advanced pricing, automation, and inventory management capabilities, and potential to shift imported 1P inventory to a 3P marketplace structure are significant advantages vs. other retailers,” they wrote.
“Walmart also has early-stage growth drivers coming into play that help mitigate potential tariff volatility, including the shift to eCommerce profitability, growth in digital advertising and marketplace, pharmacy delivery, improvements in India, and strength in Sam's Club.”
Digital growth
A standout from the event was the announcement that Walmart's US eCommerce business reached profitability in the first quarter and is expected to stay profitable through the year, Bank of America highlighted.
That business has grown more than 20% annually for the past two years and now drives about half of the company’s top-line growth. Same-day delivery now reaches 93% of US households, with 95% expected by year-end, and 30-minute delivery pilots are on the horizon.
Digital advertising remains another strong growth area, analysts believe.
With $4.4 billion in global ad revenue last year, up 27% year-over-year, Walmart is seeing rising momentum from its third-party (3P) marketplace sellers.
“Even in a more challenging macro backdrop, we believe Walmart’s scale and unique position in omni-channel retail position it well to continue growing in the space, as does continued growth in 3P marketplace sellers with whom Walmart is seeing the fastest growth in digital advertising spend,” analysts wrote.
“Moreover, Walmart's recent acquisition of Vizio represents a new connected TV inventory supply pool with very healthy advertiser demand, which was Walmart's fastest growing segment of offsite inventory in the past year.”
Bank of America has a $120 price objective on Walmart, which traded hands at about $89 per share on Thursday afternoon.