While Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN) shares have been hit by concerns about the domestic UK business in light of the Government's plans for the sector, UBS reckons the ticketing group's international operations are a major source of potential upside.
The Swiss bank, which reiterated its 'buy' rating with a 12-month price target of 480p that would point to potential upside of 78%, said trends in Spain show that Europe, including Channel Tunnel, France and Italy are "the future pillars of growth".
Competition between rail carriers on lines in Spain is driving down average ticket prices, which "creates an ideal market in which Trainline can gain market share within ticket sales".
Analysts noted that while net ticket sales for the international segment grew 4% in the 2025 financial year, volumes in Spain rose 41% as new rail competition increased.
The broker said this trend provides a blueprint for growth in other high-speed rail markets including France, Italy and the Channel Tunnel route, with a combined addressable market of nearly €10 billion.
A 10 percentage point rise in market share across these markets could lift Trainline’s group EBITDA by 20–30%, UBS said.
The firm highlighted upcoming developments such as Trenitalia’s expansion in France, SNCF’s entry into the Italian market, and new services planned for the Channel Tunnel from 2029, where new challengers to Eurostar’s monopoly are entering the race.