Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude oil prices will slide to under $60 barrel by the end of next year – if the US moderates its tariffs to avoid a recession – but could crumble to $40 if President Trump stands firm and it leads to a global economic slowdown.
Commodities analysts at the investment bank predicted in a note that Brent crude might only drop slightly by the end of 2025, reaching $62 a barrel compared to around $64 at the start of this week.
This is based on two assumptions: that the US economy avoids a recession by making major concessions on the 'reciprocal' tariffs that are scheduled to take effect on 9 April, and that the OPEC+ oil-producing nations increase supply "moderately" this summer.
If so, the Goldman team see Brent falling to $55 by the end of 2026 and US West Texas Intermediate dropping to $51 a barrel.
Oil prices "would likely exceed our forecast under a very sharp reversal in tariff policy", the analysts said.
However, if the US enters a 'typical' recession, Goldman estimates that Brent would decline to $58 by the end of the year and $50 by December 2026.
In a scenario that includes a global GDP slowdown, based on the same OPEC assumption of a moderate increase, the bank predicts that Brent would decline to $54 this year and to $45 by end-2026.
If both a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts occurs, a "more extreme and less likely scenario", then the analysts see Brent plunging to just under $40 a barrel in late 2026.