- FTSE 100 climbs 55 points to 8,639
- Gold hits another record high of over to $3,148
- PM Starmer says US trade talks 'well advanced'
- Travis Perkins profits plummet 99% and outlook lowered
- Supreme Court begins motor finance hearing
- ChatGPT owner OpenAI closes largest private funding ever
4.11pm: Rolls tops risers, WPP the fallers
European stocks are back on the front foot as we head toward the closing bell.
London's blue-chip index is up 51 points or 0.6%, with its mid-cap sibling just over that.
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.) is the top FTSE 100 riser, up 4.2%, followed by names including insurer Hiscox, retailer JD Sport, lender Barclays and pest controller Rentokil Initial.
Ad giant WPP PLC (LSE:WPP) was bottom of the FTSE list after Bank of America previewed quarterly results later this month, saying they are likely to see further deterioration in like-for-like revenue.
J Sainsbury PLC (LSE:SBRY) and Tesco PLC (LSE:TSCO) were not far behind after the latest Kantar supermarket data showed spending on promotion reached the highest level in the month of March for four years, making up 28.2% of all grocery sales, even though BRC data also out today showed shop prices for food are still rising.
In focus in London, especially for many lenders, the Supreme Court hearing on motor finance compensation started today, with shares in Close Brothers Group PLC (LSE:CBG), one of the lenders that brought the case, having had a rollercoaster of a day so far, sliding 4% then jumping to a 6% gain, and now back in the red again.
On the Continent, the DAX has got a late seconds wind and is back up 1.4%, led by gains for Commerzbank and Siemens Energy.
Italy's FTSE MIB is next, up 1.3%, then Spain's IBEX 35 up 1.2% and France's CAC 40, up 0.9%.
US stocks have also climbed out of the water, with the Nasdaq tech stocks leading the way, up over 0.5%, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon all up over 1%, while Tesla has surged over 5%.
3.41pm: US tariffs' effect on the UK
US tariffs expected this week will have an impact on the UK’s economy, various figures have warned.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said as much to her cabinet colleagues, while Professor David Miles from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said if 20-25% tariffs were imposed on the UK, it could "knock out all the headroom that the government currently has".
Goldman Sachs today trimmed 0.1 percentage point off their forecast for UK growth this year, and in 2026.
This is based on an assumption that the US imposes tariffs on some goods imports from the UK, but that the wider reciprocal tariffs are avoided, as trade between the two countries is fairly balanced.
"Our updated global baseline now assumes notably larger US tariffs on other economies including the EU. We have consequently downgraded our 2025 growth forecasts for both the US and the Euro area, implying greater spillovers to the UK.
"As such, we now see a larger total hit to UK GDP from trade tensions even if the UK does avoid a reciprocal tariff. We therefore lower our UK growth forecast for 2025 to 0.8% (from 0.9%) and for 2026 to 1.2% (from 1.3%)."
The exact shape of the sweeping global tariffs on Wednesday is unknown.
Keir Starmer said earlier that the UK will not be able to avoid being hit by the levies initially but is thought to be close to an agreement.
????| Global cost of 2025 tariff war could reach $1.4 trillion
???? A new report from @AstonBusiness School evaluates the economic fallout of US tariffs across six potential future scenarios
????https://t.co/1JxJRrBFip#TeamAston pic.twitter.com/H4JnmfAaEJ
— Aston University PR (@AstonPress) April 1, 2025
3.23pm: US stocks fall on JOLTS surprise
The US JOLTS report is out and US stocks have dropped lower.
Job openings in February fell to 7.568 million, more than to the estimated 7.658 million from the previous 7.74 million, which was revised up to 7.762 million.
The job openings rate was 4.5%, below the expected 4.6%, the with previous month's 4.6% revised up to 4.7%.
The quits level, showing the confidence of workers, fell to 3.195 million from a revised down 3.256 million, but not as much as the 3.186 million expected, while the quits rate remained at 2.0% as the previous 2.1% was revised down.
Layoffs rose to 1.79 million from a revised up 1.67 million, higher than the 1.71 million estimate, with a layoffs rate of 1.1% that was flat versus a revised up number.
The Dow Jones has fallen to a 0.9% deficit, the S&P down 0.6% and the Nasdaq 0.4%. The FTSE is up 0.25%.
2.46pm: Wall Street starts April in the red
US stocks have begun April on the back foot.
The S&P 500 has opened Tuesday trading down 0.4%, while the blue-chip Dow Jones has dropped 0.65% and the tech giants of the Nasdaq are flattish, dipping just 0.1%.
The Russell 2000, the index most exposed to the US domestic economy, is down 0.9%.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 100's gains have been further slashed, with the index up just 17 or 0.2% at 8,600 now.
In Europe, the DAX is still up 1% and the CAC 0.7%.
2.23pm: UK M&A pace picks up
The pace of UK takeovers picked up in the first quarter, with 15 companies currently in live bid situations and overseas buyers accounting for nearly half of all offers, according to a report from Peel Hunt.
But the brokerage says there’s an urgent need for government action to stop the public markets from hollowing out.
The numbers highlight a growing imbalance: while acquisitions continue at speed - driven by depressed valuations and willing sellers - not a single new company with a market cap over £100 million floated in the first three months of the year.
1.44pm: AGM season votes to watch
It's spring, so in the City it's also AGM season.
A number of AGM resolutions "to watch" have been highlighted by campaign group ShareAction.
This month, they noted BP's on 17 April, where there is a vote against the re-election of chair Helge Lund.
"On February 26, BP abandoned key climate pledges and boosted investment in fossil fuels," ShareAction notes, and last month BP published the notice of meeting of its AGM without allowing a vote on the new strategy.
Shareholder activist group Follow This, backed by 17% of BP’s shareholders at the 2023 AGM, is urging investors to vote against BP’s chair in protest against the company’s decision to reverse its climate strategy without seeking shareholder approval.
Others on the list include Shell, M&S, Next, JD Sports, which are not until May, June and July.
Another vote this month is being held by Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.), where shareholders have until 3 April to decide on the company’s proposal to cancel four classes of preference shares, ahead of a meeting on 15 April.
The life insurer failed in a previous attempt in 2018, when it proposed buying the preference shares back at par, leading to investor backlash and a collapse in value.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Investors who wish to frustrate this plan for a second time and retain the flow of income from the instruments, instead of potentially banking a capital gain on their investment, can cast their vote by 3 April and make their voice heard at the General Meeting which will take place on 15 April."
12.26pm: Off highs, US futures in the red
Stocks in London and Europe are off their morning highs, while US futures are pointing to a subdued start to April for Wall Street.
The Footsie is up 0.5%, with gains for the DAX and CAC softening to just under 1% and 0.7% respectively now from 1.5% and 1.2% earlier.
The Euro Stoxx 50 and 600 are both up over 0.7%.
Across the pond, S&P 500 futures are down 0.35%, while those for the Dow Jones are down 0.45% and for the Nasdaq down 0.3%.
US bond yields are down, though, with the 10-year Treasury easing to a month's low of 4.163%.
11.46am: Gold could go a lot higher, says UBS
Gold roared into 2025, and has continued to growl, with many analysts reckoning it could go even higher.
The metal’s recent run-up nearly 10% in March alone to just over $3,120 an ounce – and a new high this morning of almost $3,149 – has been driven by a resurgence in investor demand as economic and geopolitical worries mount, says UBS.
Gold could reach $3,200 in the coming months, the Swiss bank reckons, but says a spike to $3,500 is also possible if tensions escalate or global growth slows further.
11.03am: Markets all more positive today
The FTSE 100's 70-point gain puts the index up around 0.7% this morning, erasing most of its losses from yesterday.
London's mid-caps are also higher, with the FTSE 250 index up 185 points or around 1% at 19,660.
Kingfisher, Rentokil, Games Workshop, Barclays and Glencore are the top blue-chip risers, while among the mid-caps it is PPHE Hotel, Greencore, B&M and QinetiQ.
Across the Channel, Germany's DAX is up 1.6% and France's CAC 40 is up 1.2%, recouping all the declines from the start of the week, and a little from last week.
The FTSE lost around 3.25% in March, while the DAX lost 4% and the CAC almost 5%, with both down around 3% last week.
As Deutsche Bank notes in a Q1 review this morning, markets began to experience "much larger risk-off moves" in March as tariff uncertainty began to mount, with Canada's and Mexico's 25% tariffs imposed on March 4, whilst the additional tariff on China was raised from 10% to 20%, with separate tariffs on steel and aluminium imposed at 25% on March 12.
"And looking forward, investors are still awaiting the reciprocal tariffs, which have been scheduled for April 2.
"The tariffs also meant investors became increasingly concerned about higher inflation, which exacerbated existing fears given inflation was still lingering above target across the major economies."
10.58am: Today is a stark contrast
European equities positivity comes in "stark contrast to yesterday’s fear-fuelled sell-off" ahead of the scheduled tariff day tomorrow from Donald Trump, says market analyst Josh Mahony at Scope Markets.
He says Trump's 'liberation day' plans have "done a good job of liberating the world of any certainty, and even global leaders appear unable to predict exactly what will happen tomorrow".
Efforts by the UK to stave off any initial period of damage "appear to have fallen on deaf ears," Mahony adds.
PM Kier Starmer remains hopeful that the UK is well positioned to reach a trade agreement with Trump in the coming weeks and said UK that UK-US talks are "well advanced".
Henry Zeffman, BBC News, "I think we should dwell briefly on the fact that it's not happening"
"The UK government really had hoped that it would find a way to get exempted from these tariffs.. They are now publicly conceding that is not going to happen"
"It means the special… pic.twitter.com/WM7pB9Xg37
— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) April 1, 2025
"Nonetheless, that leaves the UK economy positioned to be dealt economic damage for a short-term period at the least, denting the outlook for exporters.
"This morning saw a welcome upward revision to the manufacturing PMI, although the 44.9 recorded represents the lowest reading in 17 months.
"With UK producers having to deal with the rising costs of the national minimum wage and national insurance contributions, the impending tariff disruptions only serve to exacerbate the already difficult environment for UK manufacturers."
Today also marks the beginning of so-called 'awful April', with price rises kicking in for energy bills (6.4%), water costs (up 26% on average), an average 5% rise in council tax, and a raft of other new costs point towards a renewed inflationary surge.
Manufacturing will remain in the spotlight later, with the US ISM manufacturing PMI expected to bring fresh insights into prices and the behaviour of US producers.
That "plays into the wider theme" of tomorrow's tariffs, says Mahony, with traders "weighing up whether this is a buy the dip opportunity or part of a longer standing period of uncertainty that will weigh on stocks".
"While countries such as the UK might stand in a good position to strike a deal, there is a risk that tomorrow marks the beginning of a tit-for-tat trade war that brings yet more uncertainty and concern for markets.
"The expected retaliation from Canada, the eurozone, China, Japan, and Korea does signal that it could get worse before it gets better."
10.42am: EU data
Eurozone inflation has eased slightly to 2.2% in March, down from 2.3% in February.
Services inflation continued its downward trend, easing to 3.4% from 3.7%.
"While growth prospects remain weak and downside risks are considerable," says market analyst Lale Akoner at eToro, "room for further monetary easing is limited, in our opinion.
"New fiscal stimulus measures, the threat of retaliatory tariffs, and their effect on weakening the euro, may constrain the ECB’s ability to cut rates further.
"Policy uncertainty and rising trade tensions will likely contribute to inflation volatility in 2025 onwards, offsetting some of the disinflationary effects of subdued demand, despite increased fiscal spending, particularly on defence."
10.16am: Impact of global warming on GDP
New research has calculated that 4°C of global warming will make the average GDP per person 40% lower across the globe.
The average GDP per person would be reduced by 16% even if warming is kept to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the study by Australian scientists found, compared to previous estimates that found the reduction would be around 1.4%.
Global temperatures are currently estimated to be on course to rise by 2.1°C even if countries hit existing climate targets.
The new study was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, using one of the most popular economic models and adding climate change forecasts that capture impacts from extreme weather events on supply chains.
10.02am: Starmer says US trade talks 'well advanced'
Prime Minister Keir Starmer says UK trade talks with the US are "well advanced" ahead of Donald Trump's tariffs day tomorrow.
The PM told Sky News that the UK is "working hard on an economic deal" with the US and said "rapid progress" has been made.
However, he admitted that "there will be tariffs" and while "nobody wants a trade war", Downing Street will has to "act in the national interest and that means all options have to remain on the table".
He said "economic deals" are being discussed and that "a calm approach, a collected approach, not a knee-jerk approach, is what's needed in the best interests of our country".
Asked by Sky if he had been "played" by President Trump, Starmer said: "The US is our closest ally. Our defence, our security, our intelligence are bound up in a way that no two other countries are.
"So it’s obviously in our national interest to have a close working relationship with the US, which we’ve had for decades, and I want to ensure we have for decades to come."
9.47am: Domestic conditions deteriorating, costs rising as geopolitical tension rising
March was "another tough month" for UK manufacturers, with output contracting at the quickest pace since October 2023, says S&P director Rob Dobson, commenting on the manufacturing PMI data.
New business growth fell at the steepest rate for one-and-a-half years, suffering one of its sharpest falls since the pandemic lockdown of 2020, he says.
"Companies are being hit on several fronts," Dobson says. "Many reported that domestic market conditions are deteriorating, costs are rising due to changes in the national minimum wage and national insurance contributions, geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and global trade faces potential disruptions from tariffs.
"Although the impact on production volumes was widespread across industry, it was again small manufacturers that took the hardest knock.
"The outlook is also darkening, with overall business optimism plunging to its lowest levels since late-2022.
"Fears about current and future performance put manufacturers on an increasingly cost cautious footing, with employment, stock holdings and purchasing all falling as companies looked to work leaner and protect cash flow, margins and competitiveness. Many firms are clearly hunkering down as they expect difficulties to continue in the coming months."
9.35am: UK PMI better than expected
The UK manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) worsened less than expected last month, falling to 44.9 in March from 46.9 in February.
This was slightly better than the preliminary 'flash' reading of 44.6 that came out mid-month.
Business optimism in the sector was at its weakest level since November 2022, according to the S&P Global index, with steeper drops in output, new orders and new export business.
9.29am: What to expect from US tariffs tomorrow
Investor sentiment remains "skittish" ahead of the expected announcement of further US tariffs on Wednesday, says UBS chief investment officer Mark Haefele.
The US stock benchmarks' final readings, with the S&P 500 recovering from early pressure to close 0.55% higher and the Nasdaq reducing its declines to finish almost flat, marked a reprieve from the heavier losses seen in Europe and Asia yesterday, including single-day declines of more than 4% for both Japanese and Taiwanese benchmark indices.
Haefele notes that yields on 10-year US Treasuries are currently hovering near 4.19%, down from around 4.37% last Thursday, while gold has hit a fourth straight all-time high.
"Sentiment continues to pivot on headlines and speculation around the upcoming Trump administration tariffs," he adds, with the Wall Street Journal reporting over the weekend that Donald Trump "has pushed his team to be more aggressive" but that policy had not yet been agreed or set.
After already imposing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, plus levies on steel, aluminum, and derivative products, and newly announced tariffs on autos and auto parts, UBS expects tomorrow to see the US administration announce a new round of "reciprocal" tariffs on "a range of countries", potentially focusing on Europe and Asia excluding China.
Products that could potentially be targeted include pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber and copper, to address other countries’ persistent trade surpluses with the US and grievances related to high tariff and non-tariff barriers.
The 2025 tariffs are much larger than those from Trump's first term, says Haefele, with the effective tariff rate having increased from 2.5% to approximately 9%, the highest since World War II.
"Wednesday’s reciprocal tariffs could push the effective tariff rate another 4 percentage points higher.
"Anything further than that could move tariffs beyond a revenue-raising 'sweet spot,' in our view. Globally, the risk of high tariffs disrupting trade and economic activity would potentially offset any US federal revenue gains that the Trump administration seeks to use to further domestic policies."
Haefele says the time period is another unknown, but "we believe that the news flow could become more supportive as we approach the second half of the year".
The reciprocal and products tariffs are likely to prompt "varied responses across different countries, ranging from immediate retaliation to diplomatic negotiations".
8.58am: Travis Perkins guidance disappoints
Shares in Travis Perkins (LSE:TPK) have dropped 11.5% to 486.60p, their lowest since 2009, following the publication of the final results by the builders' merchant.
Analyst Charlie Campbell at Stifel says the results were "broadly as expected" at the adjusted operating profit line, but 2025 guidance was "more cautious than expected".
Guidance is for flat operating profit and low property profit guidance, which Campbell says implies adjusted operating profit of circa £144 million, 18% below his forecast.
He noted some caution from management on end-markets after a slow start to the year, with some acknowledgement of the group's own challenges, including the wait for a potential strategic reset with the appointment of a new CEO.
8.37am: Supreme Court case begins today
Tuesday is "crunch time" for banks, analysts said, as the UK's Supreme Court hearing begins into the motor finance mis-selling.
The case relates to claims from car finance borrowers seeking redress over undisclosed commissions paid to motor broker-dealers, with Close Brothers Group PLC (LSE:CBG) one of the companies bringing the case to court.
However the number of potentially exposed motor finane lenders is large, including Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY), Santander (LSE:BNC) and Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC), Secure Trust Bank PLC (LSE:STB) and Vanquis Banking Group PLC (LSE:VANQ), which could all potentially have to pay many million and possibly billions in redress.
"There’s a lot on the line," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, who highlighted Lloyds as the most exposed of the FTSE 100 banks.
"It’ll likely be a few months before the outcome is known, but some estimates suggest it could cost Lloyds around £6 billion if it’s forced to refund all motor finance commissions."
Lloyds already set aside £1.2 billion, with analysts expecting to see a further £1.3 billion in charges, suggesting a total cost of around £2.5 billion.
8.11am: FTSE 100 jumps at the open
The FTSE 100 has shot up at the open, jumping 84 points to 8,667 to wipe out the losses from yesterday.
Barclays is the top riser, up 2.1%, with other lenders also rising, including HSBC and NatWest at 1.7% and 1.4%.
Others near the top of the leaderboard are Rentokil Initial, GSK, Polar Capital Technology Trust and AstraZeneca.
Airlines easyJet and BA owner IAG are next.
Sainsbury's the biggest faller, down 1.8%.
8am: UK food prices up, non-food prices down
UK shop prices fell again last month, according to data from the British Retail Consortium, with non-food inflation at -1.9% but food inflation of 2.4%.
Overall, BRC's shop price inflation measure was down 0.4% in March, up from -0.7% in February.
Non-food inflation eased from -2.1% in February, while food inflation rose from 2.1% the previous month, with fresh food inflation easing but ambient food inflation rising.
Price drops in most non-food categories helped keep overall prices in deflation, says BRC boss Helen Dickinson. “Clothing and footwear was in double digit deflation as a result of weak consumer demand,” she says.
7.49am: Travis Perkins profits plummet
Travis Perkins (LSE:TPK) has reported a 99% fall in operating profit for last year, with a swing to losses at the reported level, as it cut prices and faced lower market volumes and underperformance in its builders merchanting segment.
The FTSE 250-listed construction sector supplier reported a 4.7% decline in group revenue and saw operating profits crash to £2 million from £161 million the year before.
This reflected £139 million of impairments and restructuring costs, of which £20 million were cash items.
Chair Geoff Drabble, who has taken on more responsibility after recently appointed CEO Pete Redfern stepped down last month due to ill health, said "uncertainty remains regarding the strength and timing of a recovery in UK construction activity" but the company has made some steps "to begin rebuilding trust and confidence".
7.32am: House prices unmoved
UK house price growth remained stable in March, with no month-on-month growth and with the market expected to lack oopmh in coming weeks due to the end of the stamp duty holiday.
House prices were up 3.9% year on year in March, the same as in February, according to data from Nationwide building society.
The trends are "unsurprising", said Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, who adds that the housing market is "likely to remain a little soft in the coming months".
7.24am: US tariffs on the mind
As we begin April, tomorrow's US tariff day is on the mind.
"In terms of the upcoming tariff announcement, we still don’t know which countries they’ll be imposed on and what rate," says Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank.
He reckons the Trump administration might not have the final plan totally ready yet, noting that yesterday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said a planned Rose Garden announcement would feature "country-based" tariffs, with further sectoral duties to come later.
But then last night Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox News that President Trump will announce the reciprocal tariffs at 3pm EST on Wednesday.
Bessent added that he was working with Republicans in Congress to deliver Trump’s fiscal campaign promises, including “no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, no tax on overtime”.
Reid adds: "A big concern for investors is that the US tariffs will be met by retaliatory moves, which in turn could lead to a further round of escalation as the US seek to respond.
"So that’s meant inflation expectations have continued to rise, with the 1yr US inflation swap (+13.3bps) yesterday hitting another two-year high of 3.25%.
"Other traditional inflation hedges have done well on the back of that, with gold prices (+1.24%) moving up to another record high of $3,124/oz.
"And matters weren’t helped yesterday by a fresh rise in oil prices, with Brent crude (+1.51%) moving up to a one-month high of $74.74/bbl. So collectively, that’s served to exacerbate existing concerns about inflationary pressures."
7.15am: FTSE 100 expected to step into April on the rebound
The FTSE 100 is expected to march higher on Tuesday as step into April, following a sharp sell-off in global stocks the previous day that ended with a semi-turnaround and some gains on Wall Street overnight.
On the futures market, the London benchmark has been called 37 points higher, after it closed down 76 points at 8,582.8 the day before.
US stocks finished mixed, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.55% after having dropped into correction territory earlier, while the Dow Jones jumped 1%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% as Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Broadcom and Palantir all fell over 1%. The domestically focused Russell 2000 dropped 0.6% too.
Also overnight, OpenAI has raised $40 billion in the largest ever private funding round, valuing the ChatGPT developer at $300 billion.
Asian markets are mostly rebounding slightly this morning, though not Japan's Nikkei, which is down 0.1% to add to its big fall yesterday and India's Sensex, which has slipped 1.4%.
5am: What to watch on Tuesday
Market tensions over US tariffs may reach their peak on 1 April, one day ahead of Donald Trump's so-called 'liberation day', while Tuesday also ticks the calendar into a new round of monthly economic data, beginning with manufacturing PMI surveys for many major economies.
UK house price data from Nationwide and shop price data from the BRC will also be shared early in the day, while mid-morning will see a EU flash inflation reading and labour market data, while the afternoon will bring US construction and JOLTS job openings numbers.
In company news, UK oil and gas company Serica Energy PLC (AIM:SQZ) reports final results, having last reported on trading back in September when it reported a sharp drop in first-half production, but having made a possible offer for peer EnQuest earlier this month.
Analysts, including Michael Hewson at MCH Market Insights, said the pair have taken steps to explore a possible merger in an attempt to diversify their operations and other possible synergies after seeing their share prices slide "as a consequence of the UK’s disastrous energy policies".
Elsewhere, listed private equity investment fund Pantheon International was given a boost ahead of its final results from analysts at Stifel...read more
Announcements due on 1 April:
Trading update: Renew Holdings
Finals: Corero Network Security Plc, Niox Group Plc, Pantheon Infrastructure Plc, Pinewood Technologies Group Plc, Serica Energy Plc
AGM: Hornby PLC
Economic announcements: BRC Shop Price Index (UK), Manufacturing PMI (UK, EU, US), Unemployment Rate (EU), Consumer Price Index (EU), Construction Spending (US), ISM Manufacturing (US), ISM Prices Paid (US)