Citi has raised its 2025 earnings forecast for Chilean copper miner Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) by 15%, citing the sharp rise in copper prices.
However, the bank expects a quieter start to the year when the company reports first-quarter production figures on 16 April.
Output is likely to come in at around 155,000 tonnes of copper, according to Citi estimates, as scheduled maintenance at the Los Pelambres mine temporarily slows operations.
Unit costs are expected to be around $1.50 per pound but should fall over the rest of the year as production recovers.
Despite the soft quarter, Citi remains bullish on the stock, reiterating its Buy rating and price target of £23. The upgrade to earnings comes as copper prices hover near 15-month highs, driven by renewed optimism around global demand and tightening supply conditions.
Citi also points to a potential boost from gold, which is trading well above Antofagasta’s guidance assumption of $2,100 per ounce. The company often produces gold as a by-product, meaning higher spot prices could help ease cost pressures further.
The miner, the FTSE 100’s few pure-play copper stocks, is viewed as a key beneficiary of the energy transition, with copper demand set to rise in coming years amid the shift to electrification and renewables.
Still, operational execution remains in focus. Antofagasta has faced criticism in the past for production volatility, and investors will be watching closely to see if it can stick to guidance and capitalise on a favourable pricing environment.
The shares were off 3% at 1,677p as part of a broad-based sell-off prompted by trade war and global recessionary fears.