4:11pm: Recession fears rise
Wall Street closed mixed on Monday as investors grappled with uncertainty over US trade policies and impending tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday.
The Dow rebounded 1%, gaining 418 points to close at 42,002, while the S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 5,612, though it remains on track for its worst quarter in nearly three years.
But the Nasdaq slipped 0.1% to 17,299, dragged down by declines in Tesla and Nvidia.
Market volatility is expected to rise as President Trump's tariffs loom, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%.
2:50pm: Monday's headlines
Rocket Companies Inc (NYSE:RKT), the largest mortgage lender in the United States, will acquire Mr. Coooper Group (NASDAQ:COOP), the nation’s leading mortgage servicer, in an all-stock deal valued at $9.4 billion.
A dispute between Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL, ETR:APC) and SpaceX over satellite communication technology and spectrum rights is escalating, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Newsmax (NYSE:NMAX) has surged during its debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, bringing its market capitalization above $8 billion. During Monday’s session, the company’s shares traded as much as 667% higher. They were up about 500% at 61% in the early afternoon.
1:31pm: Gold at new highs
Gold's surge to record highs of $3,121 an ounce has reignited investor interest, but analysts at RBC Capital Markets and UBS caution that the rally is fueled more by economic anxiety than strong fundamentals.
Geopolitical instability, trade war fears, and recession risks are driving sentiment, with gold trading largely on "vibes" rather than concrete economic weakness. RBC has raised its 2025 price forecast to $3,039, with a peak scenario of $3,496, while UBS sees further upside but warns much of the strength is already priced in.
For gold to sustain gains, RBC says tangible signs of economic trouble—such as rising unemployment and slowing output—must materialize. Meanwhile, investor flows into gold ETFs are picking up, signaling renewed interest in the metal.
12:36pm: Stocks mixed at midday
As of midday, the Dow is up 0.3%, signaling investor interest in blue-chip stocks amid market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has slipped 0.3%, reflecting broader caution, and the Nasdaq Composite has dropped 1.1%, pressured by declines in the technology sector.
Market volatility remains high as investors closely watch economic indicators and the Trump administration's upcoming tariff announcements.
“It is proving to be a very gloomy start to the final day of Q1 trading, as Friday’s selling continues into the new week," commented IG's Chris Beauchamp.
"While there has been some buying at the lows, the nearness of the 2 April tariff announcement means that even the most enthusiastic bargain hunters may opt to do nothing for the time being.”
11:41am: Nowhere to hide
The S&P 500 has entered correction territory after falling 10% from its mid-February peak.
"Although today’s sell off appears to be indiscriminate, there could be some divergences in stock market performance in the coming weeks," XTB's Kathleen Brooks noted.
According to Brooks, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed declining net long positions in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as investors reduced US exposure. Concerns over US protectionism and global isolation are driving this shift, with $5 trillion wiped from the S&P 500 this year. This trend may persist into Q2, leading to continued underperformance of US stocks relative to European indices.
"There is no where to hide in the stock market, as equities get caught up in the tariff headwinds, which is not helped by the fact that it is the last trading day of Q1," Brooks added.
11:11am: Goldman raises recession risk
Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate of a US recession in the next 12 months to 35% from 20%, citing the economic risks posed by escalating tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
The bank now expects GDP growth to slow to 1% in 2025, unemployment to rise to 4.5%, and core inflation to reach 3.5% by year-end.
Goldman predicts the average US tariff rate will increase by 15 percentage points next year, contributing to declining consumer and business confidence.
In response, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement three interest rate cuts this year, up from two, to counteract the economic strain.
10:31am: Week ahead
Global markets are bracing for a volatile week as investors prepare for key economic data, Federal Reserve commentary, and a critical announcement on US tariffs.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration is expected to unveil new "reciprocal" tariffs, which could sharply increase the overall US tariff rate from the current estimated 10-12% range, marking the highest level since World War II.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday, shortly after the release of the March employment report, adding another layer of uncertainty to the week. Deutsche Bank expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 150,000 jobs, slightly below recent averages. However, the impact of federal government layoffs remains uncertain, which could introduce volatility in the data.
If tariffs are more aggressive than expected, stocks could face further downside, while a more measured approach may allow markets to stabilize and shift focus to corporate earnings.
9.55am: Sea of red washes over Wall Street
Wall Street is bathed in red now too, joining up the wave of selling around the world's markets today.
The S&P 500 has fallen 1.3% at the open, down around 7.4% this month, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has sunk 2.3% to take its decline to over 10% this month and over 12% since the start of the year.
The Dow Jones is down 0.7% today, while the Russell 2000 is down 1.7%.
Big fallers include Moderna, which is down 13.4%, while Palantir is down 7.2%, Tesla has fallen 6.9% and Nvidia 5.1%.
Ahead of the start of his new tariff regime, including 25% levies on auto imports, US president Donald Trump said he “couldn’t care less” if car prices rise after tariffs on foreign-made vehicles come into force this week.
8am: Nasdaq to lead losses as Nvidia and Tesla slump further
Nasdaq tech stocks, led by Nvidia, Tesla and Palantir, are set to lead a deeper US stock market sell-off on Monday, the last trading day of the quarter, ahead of the start of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs later in the week.
On the futures market, the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.4%, while S&P 500 futures were 1.05% lower and those for the Dow Jones fell 0.65%.
This continues the 'risk off' mood from last week, which ended with the S&P declining almost 2%, the Nasdaq dropping 2.7% and the Dow Jones falling 1.7%.
So far this year, the S&P has fallen around 5%, while there has been a slump of over 10% for the Nasdaq, putting it in correction territory.
Last week's sorry end followed an uptick in core PCE inflation that combined with the lingering uncertainty around global trade, sending the VIX 'fear gauge' up 16% to just under 22.
A smaller than expected IPO fundraising for CoreWeave, a company that rents out access to NVIDIA’s chips, was also a disappointment, said analysts, adding to a growing lack of bullishness around tech stocks.
In premarket trading, NVIDIA was down 4.2%, while Tesla was 5.6% lower and Peter Thiel's Palantir was heading for a 7% slide.