JP Morgan expects Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) to hold the line on its 2025 growth targets when it reports first-quarter results, saying a reaffirmation of guidance would help calm nerves after a sluggish start to the year for weight-loss drug Wegovy in the US.
Analyst Richard Vosser forecasts sales of DKr77.1bn, around 4% below Bloomberg consensus estimates, largely due to lower expectations for both Wegovy and diabetes treatment Ozempic.
Even so, operating profit is expected to land broadly in line with consensus at DKr37.4bn, thanks to lower selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs and reduced R&D spend offsetting the topline miss.
Earnings per share are seen at DKr6.20, about 3% below consensus at DKr6.42. Vosser noted that growth could strengthen later in the year as the impact of US compounding pharmacies on Wegovy prescriptions eases and international supply improves.
JP Morgan believes Novo will stick to its current full-year guidance of 16–24% sales growth and 19–27% operating profit growth at constant exchange rates (CER).
The bank does, however, expect some trimming of the forex boost: topline tailwind to fall from 3% to 1%, and operating profit support to drop from 5% to 1%.
Consensus for full-year sales and profit is broadly in the middle of Novo’s guidance range, though Vosser suggested slight downgrades may follow if Q1 numbers disappoint.
Overall, with concerns around Wegovy’s US performance dominating investor focus, JP Morgan believes a steady hand on guidance could prove reassuring.
First-quarter results are expected on May 7