Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) will report its first quarter vehicle deliveries next week with analysts at Wedbush expecting a “very soft” print after a tumultuous few months for the company and its CEO Elon Musk.
Vehicle deliveries are expected to be in the range of 355,000 to 360,000, down 7% year-over-year.
Analysts noted that original Street estimates were over 400,000 at the start of the quarter, but have decreased dramatically as global data has weakened.
“While much of this softness is related to customers waiting for Model Y refreshes along with a lower cost new model set to be launched by the summer timeframe, the anti-Musk and brand issues are clearly at play and a major factor in this weak Q1 delivery number,” analysts wrote.
They estimate that 30% of the soft Q1 delivery number is related to Musk’s involvement in the Trump administration while 70% is connected to timing and non-brand headwind issues.
“However, we believe 1Q will be the low point and the Street is starting to look through these numbers to better understand the delivery trajectory for the rest of the year with a much stronger 2H the key as model refreshes are around the corner,” Wedbush wrote.
‘Moment of truth’ for Musk
The analysts believe Musk needs to better balance being Tesla’s CEO and running the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
“Investors and employees [are] yearning for Musk's leadership at this juncture,” they wrote. “This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead we see for the story.”
“Tesla's future is in many ways the brightest it's ever been in our view given autonomous, full self driving (FSD), robotics, and many other technology innovations now on the horizon,” Wedbush added.
The analysts repeated their ‘Outperform’ rating on Tesla, with a $550 price target. Tesla shares traded hands at $285, down about 30% in the year to date.