Tonight, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will lay down the Albanese government’s fourth budget on Tuesday night.
There are lots of issues troubling the electorate right now, not least of which are cost-of-living pressures, and this budget will no doubt contain offerings for undecided voters ahead of the upcoming federal election.
Deficit makes a return
After two years of budget surpluses, the government is forecasting a A$26.9 billion deficit for 2025–26. Chalmers will float cuts of A$2.1 billion, including reduced use of consultants, to offset this deficit.
The government will sheet the return of a deficit home to structural pressures such as lower commodity prices, slower economic growth. On the other side of the ledger are rising spending on the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), aged care, health and defence.
Cost-of-living pressures
From July 1, households and one million small businesses will receive quarterly A$150 energy rebates, amounting to A$1.8 billion in support.
Inflation has eased due in part to these subsidies, which could be expanded.
A A$9.2 billion investment over 10 years in social and affordable housing will be paired with a broadened “Help to Buy” scheme, costing an additional A$800 million.
The government has pledged A$8.5 billion over four years to make nine out of 10 GP visits free by 2030, alongside investments in urgent care clinics, cheaper pharmaceuticals and women’s health services.
Student debt relief and permanent funding for 100,000 fee-free Technical and Further Education (TAFE) places are also on the agenda.
Parents will be wooed with childcare reforms, including a guaranteed three days of subsidised care per week, irrespective of parental work activity, and a A$1 billion fund to build 160 new centres.
Defence and industry
The budget will commit an extra A$10.6 billion over four years to defence, with additional spending on missiles, radars and AUKUS submarine support. Industrial support includes A$2 billion in production credits for “green aluminium” and A$2.4 billion for Whyalla steelworks.
Funding is also expected for disaster recovery (A$1.2 billion for Cyclone Alfred), potential acquisition of Regional Express (REX), supermarket sector reform (A$2.9 million), and support for local manufacturing in light of rising global tariffs.
With an election due by 17 May, only a handful of measures – such as the energy rebate – are likely to be legislated beforehand.
The Coalition has signalled support for key initiatives, including Medicare and energy relief, but will unveil its full response in Thursday’s budget reply.