Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY) is tightening its grip on the obesity drug market, with its injectable treatment Zepbound gaining momentum over Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, according to Berenberg.
The investment bank says physician feedback in the US is now leaning in Lilly’s favour, with many citing better tolerability and efficacy. It is also upbeat on the company’s upcoming oral obesity drug, orforglipron, which could become the go-to option for patients with less severe weight issues.
This marks a turning point in what has been a closely watched rivalry. Zepbound is pulling ahead, with Berenberg predicting Lilly will hold the lion’s share of the US obesity market by 2030.
In the segment of patients with a body mass index over 35, Lilly is expected to command 64% of volume, compared with Novo’s 33%. Even among less severely obese patients, Lilly’s advantage is likely to grow once orforglipron hits the market, which could happen in 2026.
Berenberg’s analysts believe orforglipron, which is taken once daily, will appeal to a broader patient base, especially in primary care.
It is aiming to deliver weight loss in the mid-teens percentage range—roughly in line with Wegovy—and should offer a more convenient route for people seeking results without injections. Lilly’s other late-stage candidate, retatrutide, could unlock further weight-loss benefits, especially in patients with co-morbidities.
Behind the scenes, Lilly is spending heavily to scale up production. Capital expenditure rose sharply last year as the company prepared for full commercial launch of orforglipron.
Supply constraints have been easing, with more drug doses expected to come online in the first half of 2025. The FDA recently removed Zepbound from its shortage list, a sign that Lilly’s manufacturing upgrades are paying off.
Rebates in the US were lower last year, mainly due to falling insulin discounts and limited Zepbound availability. But Berenberg expects these to expand again as access to obesity treatments improves. By 2035, they forecast rebates could reach 85%.
Lilly is forecasting average sales growth of around 20% a year out to 2030, and Berenberg expects peak annual revenue from orforglipron alone to reach $32 billion across obesity and diabetes.
The bank reiterated its 'buy' rating with a $970 price target and sees Lilly as the best-placed large-cap pharma group to lead the next decade of innovation in obesity care.