At a time when Canada is getting a lot of unwelcome attention from its formerly friendly southern neighbour, the country is about to go to the polls.
The election, set for April 28, is shaping up as a referendum on the Trump administration and who is best placed to deal with it.
Extraordinary geopolitical stakes
Canadians will be going to the polls as their traditionally stable relationship with the US buckles under the extraordinary geopolitical pressure of tariffs and threatened takeover by Trump’s America.
The contest had been looking difficult for Trudeau’s Liberals, now helmed by Mark Carney, with the nation focused on thorny domestic issues like housing and affordability.
With the ascendance of Trump, Canadian voters, who have been showing their hostility to the new US regime with boycotts of US products and booing at sports events, will now have to weigh questions of sovereignty, economic resilience and the country’s future.
The expected new trade measures and bellicose talk from from the White House have made Canada’s economic future – long tied to its southern ally – an unavoidable part of the electoral conversation.
A boon for incumbent Carney
The rhetoric has unsettled Canada’s political landscape, and could prove a boon for the recently installed Carney, who has come out of the gate strongly against the attacks on Canadian sovereignty and the constant references to it becoming the 51st state of the US.
Carney, a former central banker, is up against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who has been in the parliament since he was 25.
Carney’s international credentials are strong, but this marks his first real test on the campaign trail.
Poilievre, by contrast, brings two decades of political experience and a sharp instinct for populist messaging.
His early focus on inflation and government accountability has evolved into a broader appeal to national pride, with slogans shifting from “Canada is broken” to “Canada first”.
While the New Democrats, Bloc Québécois, Greens and People’s Party are also in the race, the outcome will likely rest on which of the two frontrunners Canadians believe can best defend the country’s interests in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
Poilievre had been the favourite prior to Trump’s inauguration, but this has been rapidly changing.
A recent poll published by Ipsos Public Affairs for Global News indicated that Carney’s Liberals would secure 42% of decided voter support, compared with 36% for the Conservatives – a lead that widened by seven points in a matter of just three weeks.
Carney’s appeal to Canada’s self determinism and its public’s strong distrust of Trump seems to be working, with just over a month to go.