Copper prices surged to fresh highs this week as traders scrambled to secure supplies ahead of potential US tariffs that are reshaping global trade flows.
On Thursday, COMEX copper futures climbed above $5.13 per pound, nearing an all-time high, while London Metal Exchange (LME) copper hit $10,000 per metric ton, trading at a 13.5% discount to US prices.
"Tariff threats, tightening supply, and stimulus-fueled optimism for an economic rebound in China have underpinned a rally in copper," said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
The surge comes after former President Donald Trump directed the Commerce Department last month to explore tariffs on copper imports. While a final recommendation on a tariff rate is not expected until later this year, traders have already accelerated shipments to the US to get ahead of any potential levies.
According to Bloomberg, between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons of copper are set to arrive in the US in the coming weeks, marking a record influx. The increased demand has also widened the premium of COMEX copper over LME prices to new highs.
The redirection of global copper flows has tightened supply in other regions, with concerns growing among Asian buyers over a shortage of copper cathodes.
Key resistance levels
Beyond tariffs, China’s economic recovery has provided additional momentum for copper’s rally. Beijing has introduced stimulus measures aimed at raising household incomes and boosting domestic consumption. "Beijing’s pro-growth agenda is beginning to show up in the economic data, evidenced by recent better-than-expected retail sales, industrial output, and fixed-asset investment," Turnquist added.
From a technical standpoint, copper has broken through key resistance levels last seen in 2021 and 2022. Analysts are now eyeing the May 2024 highs near $5.20 per pound as the next major resistance level.
With tariffs looming and supply tightening, traders and investors are watching closely to see whether copper’s rally has more room to run—or if the surge is merely a front-loaded reaction to policy uncertainty.