- FTSE 100 ends the week in the red
- Rio Tinto is a copper top-pick
- Government borrowing soars in February
- ASOS bounces on upbeat trading update
4.40 pm: FTSE closes out the week in the red
Well, that's folks. Not much there to inspire as the FTSE ended the week flat after closing on Friday 55 points in the hole at 8,646.79. Looking ahead, we have updates from Next, Ocado and Bellway - so another fairly subdued week for corporate news.
Below is a little light weekend reading; an economics lesson culled from Berenberg hot from the inbox:
If Jerome Powell ever needed a history refresher, Berenberg has delivered one - and it comes with a clear warning: don’t repeat the Fed’s 1970s mistakes.
In a punchy new note, the bank says today’s inflation story is starting to echo that decade’s turbulent tale. Back then, inflation looked under control mid-decade—only to roar back even worse by the end. Berenberg doesn’t expect a full sequel (no global pandemics or wars in the wings, hopefully), but the lesson is clear: if the central bank cuts rates too soon in the face of a supply shock, it risks letting inflation off the leash again.
The Fed's been here before. In the 1970s, its decision to ease policy during an oil crisis set off a decade of spiralling prices, only broken when Paul Volcker slammed on the monetary brakes in the 1980s. Today’s Powell, a Volcker fan, might want to revisit that chapter before his next move.
Which brings us to Powell’s eyebrow-raising use of the word "transitory" - yes, that one - when talking about tariffs in his latest press conference. After misjudging post-Covid inflation as temporary, surely the Fed would steer clear of that term? Apparently not.
Berenberg thinks calling the inflationary impact of tariffs “transitory” is a mistake that could become the third major policy misstep in just a few years. The first was waiting too long to raise rates post-Covid. The second? Cutting them last September in response to rising unemployment, which was actually caused by a surge in labour supply—not falling demand.
Now, Powell risks slipping up again. The US economy is battling not just tariffs but a slowdown in immigration—a major source of labour market strength—and rising geopolitical tension, both of which push prices up.
Even the Fed admits its forecasts are looking shaky. March’s projection cut GDP expectations for 2025 and nudged up inflation estimates, but Berenberg says the risks are still tilted to the upside—especially if Trump brings back sweeping tariffs.
Bottom line? Don’t expect rate cuts any time soon. Sticky inflation and a solid jobs market are likely to keep the Fed on pause. And Powell might want to leave “transitory” where it belongs—firmly in the past.
4.01 pm: Footsie set to end the week on a bum note
As the final half hour of trading ticks down, the FTSE 100 has managed a modest bounce off its session lows - but the mood is hardly jubilant. The UK’s blue-chip index remains deep in the red, down 55 points at 8,647.03.
Over on Wall Street, the Dow Jones opened with a 400-point slump and is now only 300 points shy of Thursday’s close—not exactly cause for celebration, but at least the bleeding has slowed.
Still, the big cloud hanging over markets is, once again, Donald Trump. The president is back in the headlines, and traders are nervously watching what his next move might be in what’s starting to resemble a real-world version of Risk—tariffs, trade tension, and all.
Overlay that with recession worries in the US - stirred up by a more downbeat tone from the Federal Reserve earlier this week—and it’s fair to say sentiment is stuck firmly in first gear on both sides of the Atlantic.
2.27 pm: Wall Street posts another triple-digit loss
Trade war and recession fears put the Dow Jones on the back foot as it lost 376.24 points to trade at 41,577.08 in the first hour on Friday.
FedEx and Nike added to the gloom, issuing cautious outlook statements that rattled investors.
Nike's woes were felt on this side of the Atlantic with trainer retailer JD Sports Fashion PLC (LSE:JD.) off 5% in a tough afternoon session.
As for the UK blue-chip index, it was off 70 points at 8,632.57 and looks on course to end a turbulent week flat.
1.30 pm: JP Morgan likes copper - and Rio Tinto
As Dow Jones futures indicated the US market will likely open in the red, so the Footsie nudged lower in afternoon trading. It fell 63 points to 8,639.40.
Elsewhere, Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) emerged as one of JPMorgan’s top picks in the copper sector, as the investment bank doubled down on its bullish outlook for the red metal in 2025.
In a fresh research note, analysts said they expect global copper supply to fall short of demand starting next year, with the deficit widening significantly by the end of the decade.
For UK investors, that makes Rio a standout. The bank points to Rio’s projected 30% growth in copper production by 2028, along with a valuation that looks cheap compared to rivals.
10:40: JD Sports loses pace on Nike update
JD Sports Fashion PLC (LSE:JD.) limped lower on Friday morning after Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE, ETR:NKE) said it expects fourth-quarter revenue to fall more sharply than analysts predicted, with a mid-teens percentage drop.
The company is trying to win back shoppers who’ve moved to trendier brands. Shares slipped over 6% in after-hours trading following the cautious outlook shared during its third-quarter earnings update.
"The US sportswear giant warned the current quarter could see the company absorb a lot of pain as it looks to turn around its fortunes under new CEO Elliott Hill amid signs of slowing demand among American consumers," said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
"This overshadowed a better-than-feared showing in the three months to the end of February."
10:10am: Ceres declines on flat growth outlook
Ceres Power Holdings PLC (LSE:CWR, OTC:CPWHF) shares fell 11% after it warned 2025 revenue would likely match last year’s, despite a strong 2024.
The company posted record orders of £112.8 million and a 132% jump in revenue to £51.9 million. It also made progress with global partners like Doosan and Delta.
While Ceres said the end of its Bosch deal would have minimal impact, investors appear more concerned about the growth outlook. The focus now shifts to new deals and tech milestones.
9 am: Another test for Reeves' Spring Statement
Government borrowing came in higher than expected last month, giving Chancellor Rachel Reeves more to think about before her Spring Statement next Wednesday.
The UK borrowed £10.7 billion in February — £4.2 billion more than forecast — making it one of the biggest February borrowing totals on record. The rise was mainly down to extra spending on things like social benefits and investment.
Overall, government spending hit £93 billion for the month, while tax income and other receipts brought in £87.7 billion. So while more money came in than last year, even more went out.
It’s another sign of the financial pressure the government’s under as it tries to balance the books and plan for the months ahead.
8:45am: Heathrow flights grounded
A fire at an electrical substation near Heathrow has caused a major power outage, forcing a full-day closure today.
The blaze broke out near Hayes just before midnight, with emergency crews still working to control it.
The UK’s busiest airport has warned travellers not to come, as disruptions may last for several days. With over 1,400 flights and 200,000 passengers daily, it's a dismal start to the weekend for anyone planning to travel through the hub.
8.15am: FTSE starts lower
The FTSE 100 has started Friday lower, taking its lead from a weaker US session overnight, declining 21 points or 0.24% to 8,681.19 at the open.
Mid-cap shares are also under pressure, with the FTSE 250 falling 86 points or 0.43% lower to 20,012.4.
ASOS PLC (LSE:ASC) surged 18% after the online fashion retailer said it expected interim earnings to beat expectations in an upbeat trading update.
But JD Wetherspoon PLC (LSE:JDW) headed in the other direction, shedding more than 4% in opening trades, after it warned that rising national insurance and labour costs will push company expenses up by £60 million a year.
7:50am: ASOS earnings back in fashion
ASOS PLC (LSE:ASC) says it expects stronger profits for the first half, driven by tighter cost control and fewer discounts.
In a trading update this morning, the online fashion retailer said full-price sales are up, helped by its “Test & React” strategy, which lets it scale up popular styles quickly. The company expects earnings to beat forecasts, despite ongoing pressure on sales volumes. ASOS is aiming to stabilise after a tough period and will release its half-year results on 24 April.
7:20am: Wetherspoons chair calls out rising costs, unfair taxes
JD Wetherspoon PLC (LSE:JDW) chairman Tim Martin has warned that rising national insurance and labour costs will push company expenses up by £60 million a year. That’s around £1,500 a week for every pub.
In the company's interim results out this morning, Martin also highlighted the unfair tax treatment pubs face compared to supermarkets. Still, the company expects a reasonable outcome for the full year.
For the six months to 26 January, like-for-like sales were up 4.8%, and revenue rose nearly 4% to just over £1 billion. Pre-tax profit, before exceptional items, dipped slightly to £32.9 million, down 8.6% from last year. Operating profit also dropped 4.3% to £64.8 million. Despite that, earnings per share improved to 21.5p, and the company brought back its half-year dividend, paying 4p.
7:10am: FTSE called lower as Wall Street slips
London's blue-chip index is predicted on futures markets to fall around 2 points at the open after closing 5 points lower yesterday to end at 8,701.99 in a nailbiting end to the session.
Overnight, US stocks closed lower as the market struggled to extend its recent rebound rally. The downturn came as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest economic assessment and awaited key earnings reports.
The Dow Jones fell 11 points, or 0.03%, to 41,953, while the S&P 500 dropped 12 points, or 0.2%, to 5,663, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 59 points, or 0.3%, to 17,692.
Asian markets are mixed this morning, with the Hang Seng down close to 2% and the Nikkei down 0.2%, but India's Sensex up 0.8%.
5am: What to watch on Friday
JD Wetherspoon reports half-year results, which it said earlier this year would be affected by a slight slowing of sales growth at its pubs over the second quarter and argued the full-year outlook was hard to forecast...read more
Elsewhere, cruise operator Carnival reports final results, with its shares having fallen by more than a quarter since it posted record results at the end of last year...read more
Announcements due on 21 March:
Interims: JD Wetherspoon PLC
Finals: Carnival PLC and Corporation, Ceres Power Holdings PLC
US earnings: NIO Inc
AGMs: Faron Pharmaceuticals, HSBC Holdings
Economic news: GfK Consumer Confidence (UK), Public Sector Borrowing (UK), Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (US)