4:10pm: Stocks close in the red
US stocks closed lower on Thursday as the market struggled to extend its recent rebound rally.
The Dow Jones fell 11 points, or 0.03%, to 41,953, while the S&P 500 dropped 12 points, or 0.2%, to 5,663, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 59 points, or 0.3%, to 17,692.
The downturn came as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s latest economic assessment and awaited key earnings reports. While the Fed maintained its outlook for two interest rate cuts in 2025, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank is in no rush to adjust policy amid increased economic uncertainty.
Among notable stock movements, Accenture slid 8% after a mixed earnings report and concerns over potential impacts from federal cost-cutting measures, while most mega-cap tech stocks, including Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, lost ground. However, AI-related stocks Nvidia and Meta Platforms bucked the trend, each gaining about 1%.
Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.19%, its lowest level in over a week, gold futures hit a record high, and crude oil futures saw a slight decline.
3:20pm: Thursday's headlines
SoftBank announced the acquisition of Ampere Computing, an independent silicon design company, in an all-cash transaction valued at $6.5 billion.
Apple TV+, Apple’s streaming service, is losing more than $1 billion per year despite growing to about 45 million subscribers in 2024, according to a report by The Information.
Tesla is recalling more than most of its Cybertrucks in the United States to fix an exterior panel that can detach during driving.
Kraken, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, has announced its acquisition of NinjaTrader, a prominent US retail futures trading platform, for $1.5 billion.
2:05pm: More Fed reaction
Deutsche Bank sees the Federal Reserve’s latest decision as leaning slightly dovish, despite a shift in rate projections.
The Fed kept rates steady and maintained its existing policy signals, though the updated dot plot still suggests two cuts this year.
Chair Powell indicated no urgency to change rates, even as economic forecasts were adjusted—GDP growth was revised lower to 1.7%, while core inflation was raised to 2.8%.
The Fed also slowed its balance sheet reduction, cutting the Treasury runoff cap to $5 billion per month.
"On balance, we interpreted Powell's comments as leaning somewhat dovish, in contrast to the shift in the dots," Deutsche Bank wrote.
"Our long-standing view for the Fed expects the policy rate to remain on hold this year. However, a realization of downside risks to the economy, in the absence of a material increase in inflation expectations, could require the Fed to reduce rates in 2025.
"Like the Fed, we hope to get a better sense of the details around policies before deciding whether an adjustment is needed. The data and financial markets might not allow us (or the Fed) to be so patient."
12:50pm: Dow resilient
Just after the midday point of trading Thursday, the Nasdaq is down 0.3%, leading market declines as investors remain cautious ahead of earnings reports and mixed economic signals.
The S&P 500 is down 0.2%, reflecting broader concerns about economic growth and inflation, as noted by the Federal Reserve.
The Dow Jones is up 0.1%, showing some resilience, likely due to strength in less economically sensitive sectors.
12:08pm: Copper surges
On Thursday, COMEX copper futures climbed above $5.13 per pound, nearing an all-time high, while London Metal Exchange (LME) copper hit $10,000 per metric ton, trading at a 13.5% discount to US prices.
"Tariff threats, tightening supply, and stimulus-fueled optimism for an economic rebound in China have underpinned a rally in copper," said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
From a technical standpoint, copper has broken through key resistance levels last seen in 2021 and 2022. Analysts are now eyeing the May 2024 highs near $5.20 per pound as the next major resistance level.
11:48am: Brace for volatility
Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist at LPL Financial, questioned whether the US Leading Economic Index (LEI) remains a reliable signal, as it has stayed below pre-pandemic levels since December 2022.
Consumer expectations continue to drag the index down, reflecting a prolonged "vibecession" since mid-2021. However, credit conditions have recently improved, with better swap spreads, bank lending conditions, and margin account debt balances.
Meanwhile, the steady decline in new orders since early 2022 signals an economic slowdown, though orders for nondefense core capital goods remain stable.
"Without a doubt, the economy started showing signs of a slowdown a while ago and this metric is helpful in reminding investors of the fragility of business conditions," Roach commented.
"The two main risks globally are trade uncertainty and stagflation.
"Global investors should brace for heightened volatility as the global economy adjusts to the new regime."
11:05am: Existing home sales rise
US existing home sales rose 4.2% in February to an annual rate of 4.26 million units, defying expectations of a decline, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The increase came despite earlier drops in pending contracts and high mortgage rates around 7%.
A favorable seasonal adjustment contributed to the rise, though sales were still down 1.2% from a year earlier.
"The trade shock hasn't found its way into housing yet, which is a good thing," said Jamie Cox, Managing Partner for Harris Financial Group.
"With any luck, the administration will repackage its messaging on tariffs where it should be ( on reciprocal tariffs), which will help remove the uncertainty that is plaguing markets at the moment."
9.53am: Russell 2000 and Dow Jones lead early falls on Thursday
Domestic stocks felt the brunt of selling on Thursday as trading started in New York, a day after the latest Fed decision.
The Russell 2000 index dropped 0.8% in initial trades, while the Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.15%.
Among the tech giants, Nvidia and Meta were both up either side of 1%, while Tesla and Broadcom both fell more than 1%.
On the Dow, IBM was the big weight, falling 5.4%.
8am: Stocks expected to fall as 'fear gauge' ticks back up
Wall Street stocks are expected to fall on Thursday as the rollercoaster week continues for US markets, following a strong session the day before on the back of assurance offered by the Federal Reserve at its latest meeting.
The S&P 500 has been called 0.4% lower on the futures market, while Dow Jones futures were down 0.3% and those for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were 0.6% lower.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4% to lead gains in New York, with the S&P adding 1.1% and the Dow Jones 0.9%.
European shares were sharply lower ahead of the US opening bell, with German and French benchmarks down over 1%, while London's FTSE is just below flat, as European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde warned on the effect of tariffs on growth.
But the European trade commissioner weighed in by saying the EU could delay the imposition of a first set of counter-measures against the US until mid-April.
"We are now considering to align the timing of the two sets of EU countermeasures so we can consult with member states on both lists simultaneously, and this would also give us extra time for negotiations with our American partners," Maros Sefcovic told the parliament in Brussels.
Markets "breathed a sigh a relief" following the Fed decision, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
The US central bank kept its policy rate unchanged as expected, cut the growth forecast and hiked its inflation outlook, but Fed chair Jerome Powell stressed that the potential impact of tariffs on inflation would be "transitory" and said policymakers had decided to reduce the pace of quantitative tightening, reducing how quickly the Fed shrinks the balance sheet and pulls money out of the system.
Bonds moved higher on the Fed news and the VIX 'fear gauge' backed off from highs of recent weeks, down 34% from latest peaks, but market analyst Kenny Polcari of Slatestone Wealth notes that the index is back up a little this morning "as futures are unsteady" and investors are dissecting more of the Fed commentary.
Gold hit a new high of $3056 overnight but Polcari said it "is feeling just a bit toppy now", up 16% in the year to date and "easing geo-political pressures should take some of the wind out of the sails for gold, but building trade wars and ongoing market volatility will keep buyers in line".