4:15pm: Wall Street rallies after volatile week
By the closing bell Monday, all major indexes had posted gains as investors shrugged off recent volatility.
The Dow closed 353 points higher, or 0.9%, to 41,842, leading the advance with strength in traditional sectors. The S&P 500 gained 36 points, or 0.6%, to end at 5,675, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 55 points, or 0.3%, to 17,809.
The rebound follows a turbulent week marked by concerns over tariffs and US economic growth.
Investors remain focused on upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which could shape expectations for interest rates.
3:33pm: What to expect from Nvidia's GTC conference?
Nvidia is expected to provide investors with insights into its upcoming architectures at its GTC Conference, which kicks off on Tuesday.
Analysts at Wedbush expect to receive positive feedback about current supply and demand conditions for Nvidia’s GB200 systems.
Following concerns about the demand for GB200 systems earlier this year, recent data points suggest a positive shift in expectations, the analysts noted.
Nvidia is also expected to provide more details on the Blackwell Ultra and Rubin architectures.
3:05pm: Monday's headlines
PepsiCo Inc announced the acquisition of Poppi, a fast-growing functional soda brand, for $1.95 billion.
Guess? shares surged more than 25% after the fashion brand announced it had received a go-private buyout offer from WHP Global at $13 per share.
Forever 21 has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States for the second time in six years.
Affirm shares plunged after it was announced the company’s rival Klarna has secured a significant partnership with Walmart, replacing Affirm as the retail giant’s exclusive buy now, pay later provider.
1:00pm: Uncertainty reigns
UBS analysts highlighted growing uncertainty ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as new inflation data, trade policy updates, and inflation expectations add to the complexity of the economic outlook.
The analysts anticipate that Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a stronger message on the Fed's commitment to price stability, in contrast to the more measured tone of previous meetings. The FOMC is not expected to lower interest rates at this time, and while the median "dot plot" may signal a rate cut in 2025, the analysts foresee a single cut this year.
"Despite immense uncertainty, and events affecting the outlook arising seemingly daily, we expect the Chair to deliver 'do whatever it takes' kind of rhetoric at next week's FOMC meeting," analysts wrote Monday.
12:33pm: Tech stocks stumble
Stocks were mixed at the midday point of trading Monday, with the Dow Jones leading the gains, up by 0.5%.
The S&P 500 is also in positive territory, rising by 0.2%, indicating cautious optimism among investors.
In contrast, the Nasdaq is down by 0.4%, largely due to ongoing volatility in the tech sector.
Monday's early market action featured more pain for the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks lower. Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia fell more than 1%, while Tesla shares slid over 5%.
Nvidia stock slid more than 2% in early trading ahead of the AI chipmaker’s annual GTC conference on March 18, where CEO Jensen Huang is expected to debut the company’s upcoming AI chip, Blackwell Ultra, and a new AI superchip, Vera Rubin.
11:43am: A closer look at retail figures
Retail sales showed minimal growth in February, rising just 0.2%, well below expectations of a 0.6% increase. This followed a sharp downward revision of January's data, which revealed the largest monthly decline since 2021.
The slight rebound was mainly driven by a 2.4% surge in e-commerce sales, part of the control group, which excludes volatile categories like autos and restaurants. Other sectors, including bars, department stores, and auto dealers, experienced declines.
The data raises concerns about weakening consumer demand, Wells Fargo noted, exacerbated by uncertainty around trade policies and tariffs, which could further affect spending in both goods and services.
"Worries about the ability of consumers to keep spending have been bubbling up at a more rapid pace in recent weeks," analysts wrote.
10:49am: Week ahead
Investors are bracing for a crucial week as the Federal Reserve prepares to release its latest policy decision, with financial markets on edge over inflation trends, trade tensions, and the outlook for interest rates.
The central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% following its two-day meeting ending Wednesday, but the focus will be on updated economic projections and Fed officials’ guidance on potential rate cuts later this year.
Beyond the Fed meeting, Wall Street will be watching fresh economic data for clues on the strength of the economy. Retail sales data for February, due Monday, are expected to show a 0.7% rebound from January’s 0.9% decline, fueled in part by stronger auto sales.
Manufacturing gauges from the New York and Philadelphia Fed banks, also due this week, will provide insight into business sentiment and capital investment plans.
9.52am: Dow Jones leads Wall Street gains
US stocks have opened higher, following the mixed US retail sales report.
The Dow Jones has risen 0.4%, the S&P 500 is up 0.35% and the Nasdaq 0.1%.
Nike, up 2.4%, followed by IBM and Goldman Sachs, both up 1.6%, are topping the Dow leaderboard. On the Nasdaq, Tesla is down another 2.7%, Nvidia is flat, while the rest of the 'Mag 7' stocks are up slightly.
Headline retail sales numbers were disappointing, rising just 0.2% last month compared to an expected increase of 0.6%.
However, the control group for retail sales saw an increase of 1% last month, following a 1% decline the month before.
"The result for the control group of retail sales has a closer relationship to US GDP, so this data may go some way to assuage concerns about US growth," says Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB.
"The sharp decline in consumer confidence in the US, suggested that consumption could fall off a cliff, however, the real economic data is not as pessimistic, which could fuel another leg in the US stock market recovery rally, which is once again being led higher by the US tech sector.
"One piece of economic data will not be able to sustain a recovery rally in US stocks for the long term, in our view, and the recovery could remain fragile in the coming days as we lead up to some key event risks."
The latest Atlanta Fed GDP estimate will be released later on Monday, with the last estimate having seen a 2.4% plunge for GDP after the 2.3% gain in the final quarter of 2024.
Earlier, the OECD revised down its forecasts for global growth this year, also making cautious sounds about the outlook for inflation, as trade tariffs increase the cost of doing business.
US growth is expected to slow sharply to 1.6% next year, the weakest since 2011, excluding Covid.
Trump's trade policies are expected to push Mexico into a recession, with Canadian GDP forecasts slashed in half compared to a December estimate.
8.35am: Lower Wall Street open predicted
US stock futures were pointing to a decline ahead of Monday's opening bell, potentially reversing course after a strong finish to last week.
Dow Jones futures have dropped 0.45%, with S&P 500 futures down 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures dipping 0.1%, with the former pair having gained over 1% on Friday and the Nasdaq 2.6%.
Friday saw the release of disappointing consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys, with the former dropping close to a thirty month low, which led to the market raising the probability of additional rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
This week brings a Fed meeting on Wednesday, but no cut is expected yet, with Chair Jerome Powell having said recently that the central bank is in "no hurry" to cut rates.
Today we have an update on retail sales and tomorrow brings a keynote speech from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang with the stock having dropped 20% from January’s high.
Crude oil firmed in early, with WTI up 1.2% to almost $68 a barrel as Chinese policymakers announced fiscal measures designed to boost consumer confidence and the US said it will continue air attacks on the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, in an effort to end the disruption to shipping going through the Red Sea.
"Overall, today’s weaker tone was in keeping with the general slump in risk sentiment that’s been apparent over the last four week," says market analyst David Morrison at Trade Nation.
"Back in February, US equities seemed overdue a correction. But the sell-off since then has been severe, taking both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ into correction territory, that is a decline of 10% or more from recent highs.
"The situation across smaller, more domestically-focused US equities has been even worse. The Russell 2000 has dropped close to 20% from its high in November, meaning that it is almost in ‘bear market’ territory.
"This represents a stunning reversal of fortunes given the 12% rally in the index in the week following Donald Trump’s election victory."