After the gold price notched a new record high above $3,000 per ounce at the end of last week, the price is trundling sideways at just under $2,900 this morning.
The metal has gained 14% in the year to-date, following a 27% gain in 2024.
UBS reckons it can go higher.
"With the price now reaching our long-held target of USD 3,000/oz, the main question is whether the rally will continue," says UBS strategist Wayne Gordon.
"We think so, as long as policy risks and an intensifying trade conflict continues to spur safe-haven demand."
On the latter, UBS sees a higher chance of a more broad-based and protracted trade war, particularly with the Trump administration set to release its trade investigation findings on 2 April.
US sentiment indicators are also souring, which has led to the market seeing potential for the Federal Reserve to cut rates more this year as recession risks rise.
USB has revised its target to $3,200/oz, while if President Trump steps back from his trade policies, the price is expected to fall to around $2,850/oz.
Ongoing momentum in ETF buying flows alongside demand for bars and coins are important, along with central bank buying also "crucial" as a structural support for the market, with the People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Poland (the top buyer in 2024) contining to boost their gold reserves.
Like 2024, UBS is seeing signals that purchases by central bank reserve managers "could be again close to the levels of recent years".