BAE Systems PLC (LSE:BA.) and fellow defence supplier Chemring Group (LSE:CHG), which have both flown higher in recent weeks on the back of a big boost in European defence spending, have been downgraded by analysts at Berenberg as they derive a smaller chunk of their revenue from Europe than the US.
The past couple of weeks have seen a paradigm shift in geopolitics, analysts said, with Europe "at the dawn of a decade-long rearmament cycle" to drive medium-term earnings growth for the European defence sector "at a level incomparable with the past 30 years".
However, shares such as BAE Systems have been sent flying higher.
Kier Starmer's commitment to raise UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 was higher than the analysts had expected, and they have adjusted their forecasts to incorporate a 7% compound annual growth rate in the UK procurement budget out to 35.
The analysts said this benefits QinetiQ Group PLC (LSE:QQ.) and Babcock International PLC (LSE:BAB) most, given that they both derive at least 50% of their revenue from the UK Ministry of Defence.
"In contrast, the outlook in the US is uncertain," with the Trump administration proposing targeted cuts worth $50 billion on certain “low-priority” programmes next year and so-called 'department of government efficiency' presenting "a further risk".
As a result, BAE was downgraded to 'hold' from 'buy' to due to this US defence budget uncertainty.
Chemring Group (LSE:CHG) received the same downgrade, as analysts see limited near-term upside.
"As BAE Systems and Chemring derive the highest share of revenue from the US among the big London-listed defence names, they are therefore the most exposed at a high level."
A lower reliance on the US offers 80% upside to order intake for others, as European governments reassess their decades-long reliance on US military equipment.
Europe ordered circa $54 billion of military equipment from US companies in 2024, compared to circa $74bn of orders directed to European defence companies, on Berenberg estimates.
"We estimate 80% upside to European order intake if US orders are redirected to European companies."