- FTSE 100 falls 76 points to 8,603
- Mining shares fall following weaker China data
- China's new tariffs on US goods kick in today
- Clarkson plunges as freight rates fall amid trade uncertainty
4.16pm: Almost a five-week low
The FTSE 100 is poised to finish at around almost a five-week low, down 76 points or 0.9% at 8,603.
Entain, down 8.6%, and Rolls-Royce, down 7.9%, are the big fallers.
They are followed by quite a few financial sector names (Intermediate Capital, Barclays, NatWest, StanChart, St James's Place, HSBC, Lloyds) down between 6% and 2%.
Melrose, which was heavily in the red earlier, is now Up 1%.
Top risers today are B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher, up 4%; Premier Inn owner Whitbread, up 3.5%; and property developer Land Securities, up 3.1%.
Utilities Severn Trent, National Grid, United Utilties, and Vodafone are also up. Consumer names too, like Unilever, Sainsbury's, and insurers, including Beazley and Admiral.
US bond yields are down a fair bit, it should be noted. UK gilts are down a little.
US stocks are about where they were a hour ago, with the Nasdaq down 3.5% and the S&P 500 down 2.2%. Tesla shares are down 10%, Patlantir is 6% lower, while other big fallers on the S&P include Delta Air Lines, Carnival Corp, Ralph Lauren, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Domino's Pizza and CrowdStrike, all down over 6%.
"Anyone looking for a quiet week will be sorely disappointed," says Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
The VIX index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is now at its highest level since December.
"The markets are digesting a double whammy of bad news for equity market bulls. Firstly, President Trump seems to have abandoned the US stock market and is willing to put his political vision above the near-term outlook for the US economy.
"Secondly, there are signs that the German coalition currently being put together by the Conservative Friedrich Merz is fraying," she adds, with the Green party having rejected Merz’s spending plans on defense and infrastructure.
Trump's weekend interview with Fox News, where he said the US economy is facing a "period of transition" suggested he is putting his political goals ahead of the strength of the US economy and the stock market.
"This is the playbook of President Xi in China and President Putin in Russia, who have both put politics in front of economic growth in recent years," says Brooks. "This has had major repercussions for their economies. Trump may think that he is steering the US economy in a healthy direction, but this is worrying the broader financial markets. Trump’s flip flopping on tariffs, and his old-fashioned views of 'America first', is weighing on consumption and knocking confidence."
3.21pm: Travis Perkins CEO steps down
Builder's merchants Travis Perkins has notified that its chief executive, Pete Redfern, is stepping down with immediate effect due to ill health.
Chair Geoff Drabble will "work with the management team to ensure the stability of the business and that it remains focused on progressing the actions that are already underway to improve performance, enhance profitability and create sustainable value for shareholders".
The search for a successor CEO has begun, the FTSE 250-listed company said.
Drabble said: “The board and I are very sorry that Pete’s brief but promising tenure as CEO has been brought to a premature conclusion for reasons beyond his and our control, and which none of us had anticipated. On a personal level, and on behalf of the Board, I would like to thank Pete for his valuable contribution kickstarting the group’s efforts to refocus on the customer experience and reenergise our field operations."
Travis Perkins reports next week.
3.05pm: Reports of UK oil tanker collision
There is news of an oil tanker collision off the coast of Yorkshire.
A spokesperson for Greenpeace UK, said: "We are monitoring reports of a cargo vessel crashing into an oil tanker off the coast of Yorkshire very closely.
"Both the high speed of the collision and the footage of the aftermath are cause for great concern. Right now, our thoughts are with all those affected by the incident and the emergency services responding to the situation."
"At this stage, it’s too early to assess the extent of any environmental damage. But the magnitude of any impact will depend on a number of factors, including the amount and type of oil carried by the tanker, the fuel carried by both ships, and how much of that, if any, has entered the water.
"Sea and weather conditions will also be important in determining how any spill behaves. In the case of an oil spill or any loss of hazardous cargo from the container ship involved, the speed of the response will also be crucial in limiting any impact."
3pm: Wall Street wobbling more
I get back from my lunch and the US sell-off is deepening, with the Nasdaq down 3.8% and the SP 500 down over 2%.
Among the tech titans of the Nasdaq, Microsoft has fallen 2.7%, Apple shares are down 4.7%, Nvidia and Meta have plunged over 5% and Broadcom, ASML and Palantir have all plummeted over 6%.
Germany's DAX has also given up more ground, down 1.9% now.
The FTSE's hardly a sea of calm, having dropped 0.8%.
1.57pm: Just a little Wall Street wobble
US stocks plummeted at the open on Monday, with selling of tech stocks and consumer companies.
The S&P 500 fell 1.3% but the Nasdaq plunged 2.05%, while the Dow Jones lost 0.7% and the Russell 2000 dropped 1.3%.
On the Nasdaq, all but three of the top 20 largest stocks were in the red in early trading.
Bitcoin investor MicroStrategy Inc led the decline, down 9.3% as cryptocurrency struggles continued over the weekend.
Tesla dropped 5.9% and Palantir Technologies Inc fell 5.8%, while Apple and Alphabet both dropped over 3%.
1.28pm: More sellers than buyers
The FTSE 100 and other European stocks are continuing to march lower ahead of the US open (REMINDER which is in two minutes, an hour earlier than last week as clocks went forward for daylight saving yesterday).
London's blue-chip index is now down 0.9% to below 8,600 - the lowest since the first week of February.
Aerospace parts supplier Melrose Industries PLC (LSE:MRO, OTC:MLSPF) is the biggest faller, down 6.25%, followed by Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC (LSE:RR.), down 5.9%.
Profit-taking seems to be the order of the day, with Rolls in particular having been on a flier this year and over the past couple of years, but some emotion being taken out of the trade today due to pragmatic words from Berenberg (below) and others perhaps.
Entain is down 5.4% as investors continue to mull its update from last week.
Miners, led by Antofagasta and Anglo American are also down more than 3%.
All but six of the top 20 largest companies in the index are in the red today.
And US stocks are set for even sharper falls than in Europe, with the Nasdaq set to fall 1.6% and S&P 500 1.3%, with Ncvidia, Tesla and Palantir leading the premarket losses .
12.20pm: Defence in focus
One factor taking the edge off some defence stocks today is likely to be a note from analysts at Berenberg, who have downgraded a number of the big names in the sector.
Although the past couple of weeks has seen a "geopolitical paradigm shift", with Europe "at the dawn of a decade-long rearmament cycle" to drive medium-term earnings growth for the European defence sector "at a level incomparable with the past 30 years", the analyst downgraded BAE Systems to 'hold' from 'buy', and Chemring the same, "due to US defence budget uncertainty and limited near-term upside respectively".
12.06am: Chinese stock gains to slow, says Goldman
"Chinese equities have enjoyed the best start of the year in history," Goldman Sachs pointed out today in a note to clients, predicting the bull market will take a breather but still has legs for more gains.
The MSCI China has gained 19% since the start of 2025, outperforming developing and emerging markets 18 and 14 percentage points respectively.
"The 29% trough-to-peak surge ranks the third most significant rally in history," the bank notes, only trailing the post-2008 and Covid reopening recoveries.
11.41am: Markets firmly in the red
The FTSE is down 0.4%, led by declines for miners (on the back of China), defence companies (profit taking) and banks (stuff).
Across the Channel, Germany's DAX and Spain's IBEX are both down more than 0.9%, while France's CAC and Italy's FTSE MIB are both firmly in the red as well.
US futures are similarly positioned, with S&P 500 futures down 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 down 1% and Dow Jones down 0.85%.
European investor sentiment however, has been improving, according to the Sentix index that came out earlier, jumping to -2.9 in March from -12.7 in February, above the consensus forecast.
"Investor sentiment improved significantly at the end of Q1," says Melanie Debono, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The announcements of greater defence spending in Germany and the EU, as well as of higher infrastructure spending in Germany, clearly outweighed the impact from Donald Trump’s decision to go ahead with raising tariffs on most imports from Canada and Mexico and ramping up his threats of higher tariffs on EU imports."
She reminds that the February sentix read came out just after the first postponement of the Canadian and Mexican tariffs, and preceded Trump’s announcement of other tariffs, and a 25% tariff on all EU goods.
The headline increase was supported by gains in both the current assessment index, which rose to -21.8 from -25.5 in February, and the expectations gauge, which surged to +18.0, its highest since July 2021, from +1.0.
"Investor sentiment is at the mercy of Mr. Trump’s whim, so we are sceptical that this rising trend will hold but still expect a rebound in GDP growth in both the Eurozone and Germany," she adds.
10.57am: Work related stress
Work-related ill-health is costing the UK economy £415 million a week, according to new analysis from the TUC, with the number of days lost due to work-related ill-health rocketing by a third since 2010.
There were 34 million days lost to stress, depression and anxiety in 2023-2024, up from 22 million a decade earlier, with this work-related ill health reducing economic output by close to £22 billion.
The TUC says findings highlight the importance of driving up job quality in the UK and stronger rights at work, as the Employment Rights bill returns to parliament.
10.37am: Canada election, work related stress, private schools, price of beef
Some interesting stories going around this morning, with direct or tangential influence on markets, finance or business.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the central banks of Canada and England, decisively won the vote to be the next PM of Canada with 85.9% of the vote from members of the incumbent Liberal party.
The party has reversed its political freefall, the Guardian reports, to such a degree that a previously expected Conservative majority in the next general election looks increasingly unlikely and a leaked memo from another party suggests Carney would probably call a snap election within days of winning the leadership race.
Elsewhere, the addition of 20% VAT to private school fees has not set off the predicted exodus.
Figures from councils in England show that there has been no impact from the policy in applications to start at state secondary schools this year.
There has been no widespread shortages of school places, the Guardian reported, based on application figures for places in year 7.
In the Telegraph, we hear that a growing number of rich people from the US are buying boltholes in London as they "seek to escape Donald Trump’s America".
Americans accounted for 11.6% of all overseas buyers in central London during the final three months of 2024, according to research from Knight Frank, with the next highest being those from China at 8.1%.
Also in that paper, the price of a juicy stake is soaring as a cattle shortage has pushed the cost of beef to record highs.
A supply crisis and growing demand for red meat are coinciding, apparently, with the average deadweight price of a cow up 15% since the start of the year to hit record highs, the Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) says.
10.16am: Markets 'uneasy'
Trade worries and China’s deflation problem are weighing on market sentiment this morning, says Susannah Streeter, head of market analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown.
"Unease about the effect of Trump’s tariffs hangs over financial markets at the start of the week," she says.
"The prospect of a recession in the US is lurking, with consumer confidence falling, companies facing increasing trade complexity and investors turning more nervous.
"China’s deflation problem is also weighing on sentiment, and geopolitical concerns are staying in focus, with attacks on Ukraine intensifying.
This is why the FTSE 100 is on the back foot, down 0.3%, with the major European benchmarks all in the red now, too.
Markets are "unable to shake off the nervousness surrounding the concerns about slowing global growth", says Streeter.
Oil prices are creeping up, with Brent crude, which fell below $69 a barrel last week, now inching back above $70.
On the China consumer price data, which showed the fastest fall in 13 months, this is "adding to concerns about weakness in the global economy.
"Deflation continues to stalk the Chinese economy, with consumers super-cautious about spending.
"The property crisis has battered wealth perceptions and led to risk averse behaviour, with wariness rising amid the ratcheting up trade tensions and fresh tariffs being imposed by the US. Efforts by authorities so far to reduce the cost of borrowing to stimulate growth have not had the desired effect. The expansion of a subsidy programme for a range of domestic goods underwhelmed, given the lack of more targeted support for households."
Defence stocks are set to stay in focus, Streeter adds, as more detail about an increase in military spending is expected when Europe’s finance ministers meet today, while Ukraine's President Zelensky is in Saudi Arabia meeting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, ahead of talks between Ukrainian and US officials about the war with Russia.
9.56am: Watches of Switzerland buyback aided by banks
Watches of Switzerland Group PLC is up 5% as the company announces a £25 million share buyback programme, seemingly helped by a new bank borrowing facility it arranged at the end of last year.
The luxury watch retailer said its balance sheet remains strong, helped by a December refinancing where it arranged a £150 million facility.
While the company continues to invest in showroom upgrades, new projects, and acquisitions, it now has excess funds to return to shareholders.
9.33am: Hining decline eases off
Two jobs reports out this morning.
One says the decline in hiring by UK companies eased in February compared to January. That's a survey from KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC).
The other, from BDO, says unemployment is on the up as businesses trim their workforce in preparation for the rises in minimum wage and NIC next month.
BDO's employment index has fallen to lows not witnessed since the fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis, with business optimism down for the fifth report in a row.
"After a long winter, there are some hints of a turn in the labour market as we head into spring. This is led by the private sector – despite recent tax rises – and that shouldn’t be missed," says REC chief executive Neil Carberry.
KPMG's Jon Holt says companies are taking a "wait and see approach" to recruitment, adding that February's softer decline in hiring "could be an indication that expectations of further interest rate cuts and better-than-expected recent economic data are starting to release some of the pressures on business".
9.01am: China tariffs on US products begin
Today sees China's retaliatory tariffs begin on around $22 billion of US agricultural exports.
Beijing announced the measures applying to 740 items last week in response to Donald Trump adding an extra 10% tariff on all Chinese products taking the total levy up to 20%.
China has added a 10% tariff on US soy beans, which last year saw $12 billion of goods sold by US farmers, along with beef, pork and seafood - estimated by Nomura to cover almost $19 billion of US goods.
A new 15% levy has been applied to chicken, corn and cotton, worth an estimated $3 billion.
China last week banned US timber imports and last month also targeted US autos and energy exports, estimated to cover close to $15 billion of goods.
8.45am: FTSE 'losing its lustre'
With not a huge amount happening this morning, Richard Hunter, chief market analyst at ii, summing up where we find ourselves so far this year.
He notes that the main indices are "struggling to find form", given the overall backdrop, with the S&P 500 having fallen 1.9% and the FTSE 100 having "perhaps lost some of its lustre over the last few trading sessions, where international investor attention has turned to the more aggressive spending plans which have been announced elsewhere in Europe".
"While this may have diminished the attraction of the index as the obvious value play within the area, its constituents continue to provide a solid backbone given its exposure to defensive and stable sectors, while also seeing the additional benefit of the current focus on defence spending, which has resulted in gains this year of 36% for both BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce."
This week will bring various UK economic data, incliding GDP, industrial production, manufacturing output and retail sales.
The FTSE is down 0.3% so far this morning, while across the Channel, the CAC and DAX are both just above flat.
8.32am: Clarkson plunges
A big faller in the FTSE 250 is Clarkson PLC, despite the shipping services group reporting a solid set of results, with the shares down 15%.
However, it warned of lower freight rates amid geopolitical uncertainty as Donald Trump's tariffs cloud the outlook.
Chief executive Andi Case says: "The geo-political outlook remains uncertain as we enter 2025, with ongoing regional conflicts and trade tensions creating uncertainty for markets reflected by freight rates and asset values currently lower than 2024.
"The resolution or continuation of these events during the year will provide potential headwinds and tailwinds to the group's performance as we support our clients through this complexity."
Analysts at Peel Hunt say: "We take geopolitical uncertainty to mean Trump's tariffs and the threats of charges on Chinese-built, owned, and operated vessels entering US ports."
8.11am: FTSE opens slightly lower
The FTSE 100 opened higher in initial trades but is now down 5 points at 8,674.7.
Defensives are leading the decline, with AstraZeneca down 1.8%, Reckitt Benckiser down 1.75% and BT Group down 1.5% at the bottom of the list.
Banks are also in the red, with Barclays down 0.85% and Lloyds down 0.8%.
Defence and aerospace names are seeing some slight profit-taking too after gains in recent weeks, with BAE Systems and Melrose in the red.
8am: Assura accepts new KKR offer
The board of Assura Group (LSE:AGR) has given the thumbs up a £1.6 billion takeover bid from KKR and Stonepeak Partners.
Having rejected several previous offers, the board of the UK healthcare property investor said the consortium has now upped its bid to a potential cash offer of 49.4p per share.
This is up from the previous 48p proposal and is now equal to the company's net tangible asset value at the end of September.
7.51am: BP preparing for battle
BP is in the news, with a report yesterday that US activist investor Elliott Management is unhappy with the strategy "reset" that the oil giant presented to investors at the end of last month.
The hedge fund instead wants BP to sell its petrol stations business as it embarks on an aggressive campaign to improve the performance of the oil giant.
Elliott, which has built up a £3.5 billion stake in the company, was reported in the Mail on Sunday to be preparing a "battle plan" ahead of the annual shareholder meeting on 17 April.
However, writing in the Times, BP CEO Murray Auchincloss insists that his move to increase fossil fuel production and de-prioritise green energy targets is "resonating" with investors.
He writes that he has held many conversations with shareholders and "most of the questions to me are about how quickly we can deliver".
7.35am: Deliveroo exits Hong Kong
Deliveroo PLC has announced it is selling up and moving out of Hong Kong after nine years, suggesting it was not a "disciplined" use of its capital.
After nine years of operating in the special administrative region of China, the business represented 5% of the group's gross transaction value but remained lossmaking on an EBITDA level.
7.16am: FTSE 100 tipped to bounce back
The FTSE 100 is trading higher on futures markets on at the start of the week, after losing ground over previous days.
A gain of around 24 points is predicted, with the index having fallen just under 125 points over the whole of last week to end at 8,679.9.
US stocks also lost ground over the week but finished higher on Friday as the first set of jobs data of the new Trump era saw the unemployment rate higher than expected but slower-than-expected wage growth.
Asian stocks are mixed this morning, with Japan's Nikkei and India's Sensex slightly higher but the Hang Seng down 1.7% in Hong Kong.
"The week starts on a sharp negative note for the Chinese stocks, as the latest inflation update showed that consumer prices in China fell the most in more than a year," says market analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya at Swissquote Bank.
Elsewhere, news breaks that Mark Carney, the ex president of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, will replace Justin Trudeau as the next Canadian Prime Minister.
Overall, the week ahead expected to see more tariffs kick in, including the Chinese tariffs on US agricultural products and some Canadian products will start today, while the US steel and aluminium tariffs will be live from Wednesday.
This week, US and Ukrainian officials are also scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia for talks.
Announcements on Monday 10 March
Finals: Clarkson PLC, Globaldata PLC
US earnings: Oracle
AGMs: Empyrean Energy PLC, Oncimmune Holdings PLC