The United States is likely to impose a 25% tariff on copper imports by the fourth quarter of 2025, up from an effective 11% currently priced into the market, Citi analysts said in a note on Thursday.
The move, previously mentioned by former President Donald Trump, is expected to weigh on US copper consumption and prices from the second quarter of 2025, with broader reciprocal tariffs flagged from April 2, the bank said.
Despite the expected demand hit, global refined copper supply outside the US is likely to remain balanced through 2025 due to existing supply constraints, Citi said.
The US, a major exporter of copper in scrap form, is projected to ship about 600,000 tonnes of contained copper in 2024.
With the higher import tariffs, the country is likely to see a significant increase in domestic scrap processing to offset reduced refined copper imports, the note added.