Trainline PLC (LSE:TRN) reports results on Thursday 13 March with its shares having fallen by a quarter since the start of the year amid concerns that the foundation of a new British national rail company and associated ticket website could squeeze its business.
While this will be on investors' minds, the results are not likely to be able to dispel much of these worries.
Analysts at UBS have argued that concerns over government plans to consolidate ticketing websites are "overdone".
They see no imminent impact (and in their view "no likely long-term impact") on Trainline’s market position, citing past failed attempts by new entrants to unseat dominant players in other sectors.
Buybacks could be one answer for the company, UBS suggested.
"In the context of a depressed share price relative to recent levels, the upcoming 13 March trading update could be a potential catalyst for an extension of the current buyback."
The analysts estimate the group's net debt to EBITDA position will stand at 0.3x - below the levels at which it announced its past two buyback programs.
"Assuming a willingness to increase proforma leverage to 1.0x, we estimate as much as circa £110 million could be announced," they said, and future years offer scope for potential buybacks by the end of 2027 to total £360 million, around a 25% of the current market cap.
"All before a likely launch of the new GBR ticketing platform."