A new consensus forecast from financial services provider Parker Blackwood Advisers has offered some hope for the Australian economy, with economists expecting a modest increase to economic activity in the upcoming ABS quarter national accounts, set to be released tomorrow.
Consensus forecasts suggest the economy expanded by 0.5% in the December quarter, an improvement on the 0.3% growth recorded in the prior three-month period.
If the forecast is accurate, that would translate to an annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 1.2% for 2024—up from the 0.8% recorded in the September quarter but still significantly below the long-term historical average of over 3%.
Productivity still a concern
"Productivity constraints and subdued private sector investment continue to weigh on economic momentum," Parker Blackwood Advisers chief investment officer Nathan Jones said.
"While fiscal policy and household spending provide some stability, sustained growth requires stronger business investment and improvements in labour productivity—key factors the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be closely monitoring in its policy deliberations."
The RBA’s February meeting minutes were released today, offering little in the way of comfort for the market as the board remained bearish on further rate cuts.
Beyond those indicators, CoreLogic’s monthly Home Value Index is set to be released on Monday, which will offer insight into whether the recent downturn in housing will continue.
Retail trade figures today, international trade data on Thursday, and household spending indicators on Friday will further illustrate the strength of consumer activity, painting a clearer picture of the economy’s trajectory.