Cobalt prices could be in for a wild ride after the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced a four-month halt to exports, according to Panmure Liberum.
The move matters because the DRC supplies 85% of the world’s cobalt, a key material in electric vehicle (EV) batteries and electronics.
The government wants to drive prices higher, but Panmure Liberum is sceptical, likening it to Glencore’s failed attempt to boost prices by closing its Mutanda mine in 2019.
Cobalt prices have tumbled 65-75% from their mid-2022 peak, hitting levels last seen in 2016.
Weak demand from China’s EV and consumer electronics markets, a shift to cheaper lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries, and stockpiles across the supply chain have all weighed on prices, Panmure Liberum said.
The global cobalt market is small, producing around 240,000 tonnes annually, worth about $5.4 billion at current prices. Almost all of it comes from mining, with recycled cobalt making up just 4-5% of supply.
That means the DRC’s export ban will hit refiners and manufacturers directly.
Panmure Liberum warns that the ban could backfire. Buyers prioritise stable supply over price, and uncertainty could push them towards alternatives. In 2019, Glencore’s Mutanda shutdown accelerated the adoption of LFP batteries, reducing long-term demand for cobalt.
EV batteries account for 57% of cobalt demand, and the market is still growing, with total EV sales expected to rise 25% in 2025.
But Panmure Liberum says supply shocks like this one could force manufacturers to rethink their reliance on the metal.