AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) is facing tough revenue comparisons for the fourth quarter of 2024 after distributing the Taylor Swift and Beyonce concert films in Q4 2023.
Analysts at Wedbush expect AMC to report Q4 revenue of $1.274 billion, up 15% year-over-year but below the Wall Street consensus of $1.298 billion.
They expect domestic revenue to grow 15% from the year-ago quarter to $956 million.
Admissions revenue per screen is expected to be 20% versus the box office of 26.5% on the difficult comparison.
“Even with a challenging Q4 comparison, AMC likely maintained its 150 basis points of market share gains in 2024 versus 2019, despite closing roughly 10% of its footprint over that time period,” analysts wrote.
International revenue is expected to grow 17% year-over-year to $319 million on a greater breadth of titles when compared to last year.
“AMC’s international segment should rebound given the more varied upcoming slate, and as AMC diverts some cash to theater-level upgrades in the region to drive more robust ticket price increases over the coming year with the premium release slate,” analysts wrote.
'Closing unproductive doors'
For the full year, Wedbush expects total revenue to align with the domestic box office expectations of a 4% year-over-year decline followed by a 7% increase in 2025.
“We expect AMC to continue closing unproductive doors as it looks to shore up its balance sheet in 2025, while investing in its most productive theaters to drive more revenue per screen and per attendee,” they wrote.
“AMC is leveraging its vast network of premium large format screens to do this, and last quarter it divulged plans to expand its premium and large screens globally. However, it is unlikely to get credit for this until it shows that it can balance these investments with debt repayment and ultimately generate cash.”
Following challenging comparisons in both Q4 and Q1, analysts see tailwinds for AMC starting in Q2.
“As such, we expect AMC’s shares to remain rangebound in the near-term,” they wrote. “We maintain our ‘Neutral’ rating as some hurdles remain and shares could be under pressure before the box office starts taking off in Q2.”
They awarded the stock a $4 price target. Shares of AMC traded down 5.2% at $3.19 in the early afternoon on Tuesday, ahead of its earnings report due after the market close on Wednesday.