- FTSE 100 ends the day down 32.26 points at 8,732.46
- Trade war jitters made for a nervy session
- Natwest succumbed to profit-taking
- Wood Group alert sends shares diving 45%
4.39 pm: And that’s it, folks.
The FTSE 100 ended the day much as it started—down and stuck in a range.
Trade war fears and uncertainty over Ukraine peace talks did little to lift the mood. But this felt more like a breather than a sharp sell-off, with the index still near record highs after gaining 5.7% so far this year.
In the U.S., retail sales fell 0.9% last month as cold weather kept shoppers indoors, hitting car dealerships and most other stores. The Dow Jones dipped nearly 100 points, while the tech-focused Nasdaq edged into the green.
Back in London, NatWest’s results prompted some profit-taking. Up 12% in the past month, the stock slipped 2% on Friday.
The biggest casualty of the day was Wood Group, which tumbled 45% after issuing a brutal earnings warning.
- FTSE 100 stuck in negative territory
- Vance chides Europe as the 'enemy within'
- Gaming stocks buoyed by DraftKings uptick
4.04 pm: Footsie set to end on a down note
The FTSE 100 remained in the red through the afternoon, weighed down by a weak start on Wall Street and mounting geopolitical tensions.
By mid-afternoon, London’s blue-chip index had fallen 38 points to 8,726.88. Market jitters were fuelled by ongoing trade war fears and tariff threats from President Donald Trump, as well as uncertainty ahead of peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
Adding to the uneasy mood was a scathing speech by Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference, where he took aim at America’s European allies.
Vance warned that free speech was “in retreat” across the continent, telling European leaders that the U.S. was increasingly concerned about “the threat from within.”
“The threat that I worry most about vis-à-vis Europe is not Russia, not China, it's not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values,” he said.
The vice president had been due to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the summit in Germany on Friday, but the meeting was postponed. According to the Kyiv Post, Ukraine is finalising a key partnership memorandum with the U.S. before talks go ahead.
Away from the geopolitics, the gambling sector provided one of the free bright spots with Entain PLC (LSE:ENT) and Flutter Entertainment PLC (LSE:FLTR) up 7% and 6% respectively on the back of strong figures from DraftKings overnight.
- FTSE 100 off 25 points at 8,739.56
- US stocks start very slightly higher
- American retail sales provide the day's big data
2:40pm: US stocks turn positive
After futures pointed lower, it turned out more positive (albeit not by much) in the first few minutes of trading in New York on Friday.
Investors are digested a busy week of inflation data, tariff updates, and corporate earnings, with fresh retail sales figures adding to the market’s cautious tone.
The Dow Jones was marked a handful of points higher at 44,715, whilst the S&P 500 tacked on 5 points to trade at 6,120 and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 15 points to 19,961.
Overall, the major indexes remain on track for solid weekly gains.
The latest retail sales report added to economic uncertainty. January retail sales fell 0.9% month over month, far exceeding the 0.2% decline economists had expected, according to Bloomberg data. This marked the steepest drop since January 2024. However, December’s sales figures were revised higher to a 0.7% increase from an earlier 0.4% estimate, partially offsetting the weaker January data.
Among pre-market movers, Airbnb surged after the company posted better-than-expected earnings. GameStop (GME) shares rallied on speculation that the video game retailer may expand into bitcoin.
Meanwhile, Moderna shares fell after the vaccine maker reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss.
Investors continue to assess the impact of US tariff measures, which will not take effect until April, allowing time for adjustments. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Analyst at Swissquote Bank, noted that the market reaction suggests some relief despite broader concerns.
“I don’t know if you could call it good news, but the markets’ reaction suggests that the latter has been perceived as good news and helped keep appetite afloat yesterday,” Ozkardeskaya said.
“One of the reasons that could explain the weakness of the yields and the dollar on normally dollar-supportive inflation and tariff news is the fact that some of the components in that PPI report that feed into the PCE index – the Federal Reserve’s favourite gauge of inflation – pointed at weakness.”
2.03 pm: Brokers underwhelmed by NatWest
Call the team from Silent Witness. The NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG) results post-mortem is currently taking place. Below, we give you a flavour of the commentary accompanying what seemed on the face of it to be a decent set of prelims. The response, with the shares down 3%, suggested otherwise. Anyway, here we go:
Peel Hunt noted that NatWest’s better-than-expected £6.2 billion pre-tax profit was driven by lower loan impairments, which came in at just 9 basis points versus market expectations of 15.
However, with the bank’s valuation at the upper end of the sector and the earnings upgrade cycle appearing to have run its course, Peel Hunt suggested the stock may “pause for breath.”
The broker maintained its £4.70 price target but said it would review its recommendation.
Shore Capital also pointed to a solid performance, highlighting stronger-than-expected income and an improved return on tangible equity (RoTE) target of 15-16% for 2025 as it repeated its 'hold' recommendation.
However, analysts noted that market forecasts had already factored in much of the guidance and expected only a “neutral to slightly positive” response.
Both brokers welcomed NatWest’s decision to raise its dividend payout ratio to 50% from 40%, which will lift consensus dividend forecasts. But with the shares up sharply over the past year, analysts saw little immediate upside, contributing to the negative market reaction.
12:17 pm: Mortgage Advice Bureau slips as Deutsche Bank downgrades
Shares in Mortgage Advice Bureau (LSE: MAB1) dipped after Deutsche Bank cut its rating from 'buy' to 'hold', citing a strategic shift in its business model.
Its analysts h noted that the firm is moving towards a directly employed adviser structure as growth in its capital-light, appointed representative model slows. Future expansion will rely more on productivity gains and acquisitions, requiring greater investment, funded by a dividend rebasing.
While Deutsche Bank raised its 2025 earnings forecasts due to changes in tech cost accounting, it maintained free cash flow projections. Despite keeping its 900p price target, the bank sees limited further upside after the stock’s 40% rally this year.
10.56: Mining stocks surge as Trump’s tariff threats boost commodity outlook
Shares in major mining companies surged on Friday, with Antofagasta (LON: ANTO) rising 4%, Glencore (LON: GLEN) up 3% and Fresnillo (LON: FRES) and Anglo American (LON: AAL) up leading gains in the FTSE 100. The rally follows US President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats, fuelling expectations of higher metal prices and increased demand for non-Chinese suppliers.
Trump’s proposed policies, including higher tariffs on Chinese imports, have heightened concerns over supply chain disruptions, particularly for key industrial metals such as copper, silver, and zinc. As a result, investors are betting on higher commodity prices and increased demand for miners outside China.
Copper, a key revenue driver for Antofagasta and Glencore, could see price gains amid potential supply constraints. Meanwhile, Fresnillo, a top silver producer, benefits from its safe-haven appeal during market uncertainty. Anglo American, with diverse global operations, is well-positioned to capitalise on shifting trade policies.
The rally also reflects a stronger inflation hedge, as metals tend to perform well in periods of economic uncertainty. If tariffs escalate, mining stocks could continue to benefit from rising metal prices and strategic shifts in global supply chains.
9.54 am: Tough sledding
President Trump's tariff plans appear to have exerted a drag on European markets - presumably because they are in the cross-hairs of the Tangoed head of the free world. In the US after hours, the mood was more ebullient. Outside of this, Wood Group (down 30%) has been thumped after a profit warning, while Natwest's prelims failed to impress.
9.14 am: Rough ride for Wood Group investors
John Wood Group PLC (LSE:WG.) shares nosedived 31% in early trading after the company flagged weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results and warned of negative free cash flow for 2025. The engineering firm expects full-year adjusted EBITDA of $450 million to $460 million but is scrambling to cut costs, cancelling bonuses and selling assets worth up to $200 million. Net debt remains high at $690 million, with an average of $1.1 billion over the year. An independent review by Deloitte could lead to prior-year adjustments. The stock was down 20.12p at 45.23p.
8.22 am: And we are off...and our donkey is left in the stalls
So, we are off to the races - and it looks like the FTSE 100 has been left in the stalls. After the spread-betters predicted a modest gain, the FTSE promptly opened 30 points lower at 8,734.73.
So, the positivity seen in the US overnight wasn't teleported across the Atlantic.
The morning's main feature so far is NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG), which followed Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) on Thursday by failing to wow investors with better-than-expected full-year numbers.
Two explanations have been proffered: Profit-taking (shares in both banks enjoyed strong runs ahead of the numbers); and the outlook (falling interest rates, subdued growth).
Either way, it appears to take a lot to cheer the Square Mile or the northwest in the case of Gary Greenwood, an analyst at Liverpool-headquartered Shore Capital. "The shares have had a very strong run over the past year and into these results so we would expect a neutral to slightly positive reaction this morning," he said.
Earlier, NatWest posted a return on tangible equity of 17.5%, beating its own upgraded guidance, while total income, excluding one-off items, reached £14.6 billion, driven by strong deposit margins and lending growth.
7.34 am: Feeble start predicted
The FTSE 100 is expected to open slightly higher, with early predictions pointing to a modest six-point gain to 8,770.72.
After hours in the US, stocks climbed after President Donald Trump announced plans for new tariffs but delayed their rollout. Investors also weighed fresh data suggesting inflation is picking up again.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained over 350 points, rising 0.7 per cent. The S&P 500 added more than 1 per cent, closing just below its record high. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.5 per cent, boosted by strong performances from tech giants Nvidia and Tesla.
"I don’t know if you could call it [the tariff announcement] good news, but the markets’ reaction suggests that the latter has been perceived as good news and helped keep appetite afloat yesterday," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
The early big corporate news story was NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG). This is not because Nigel Farage is mulling legal action over last year's de-banking scuffle but because it has weighed in with marginally better-than-expected prelims.
We'll bring you more when the analysts have picked over the numbers. As we saw with Barclays on Thursday, a seemingly shiny top gloss can often be ignored by a fickle market.