Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX, NYSE:GOLD) surged 6.3% on Wednesday after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, bolstered by expanding margins and stronger free cash flow.
The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.46 exceeded analyst estimates of $0.42, while adjusted EBITDA of $2.25 billion came in slightly ahead of the consensus forecast.
The company's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 62% in Q4, a notable jump from the nine-month average of approximately 51%. Free cash flow also improved by about $60 million quarter-over-quarter to reach $501 million.
Jefferies analysts, maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating and a $26 price target on the stock, highlighted Barrick’s growing profitability.
Barrick’s Q4 gold production of 1.08 million ounces was largely in line with Jefferies’ estimate of 1.09 million ounces, as strong performance from Loulo-Gounkoto and North Mara offset weaker output at Carlin, Pueblo Viejo, and Kibali. However, all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for gold were $1,451 per ounce, higher than Jefferies’ forecast of $1,414 per ounce.
Meanwhile, copper production of 141 million pounds surpassed estimates, driven by record output at Lumwana.
Looking ahead to 2025, Barrick’s guidance reflects stable production but slightly elevated costs. The company expects attributable gold production between 3.15 million and 3.5 million ounces, in line with Jefferies’ estimate of 3.48 million ounces.
However, projected gold cash costs of $1,050-$1,130 per ounce and AISC of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce came in higher than Jefferies’ estimates of $1,033 and $1,456, respectively. The higher cost projections are attributed to operations at Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) and Porgera.
For copper, Barrick forecasts 2025 attributable production of 200,000-230,000 tonnes, slightly below Jefferies’ estimate of 237,000 tonnes. The company projects cash costs of $1.80-$2.10 per pound and AISC of $2.80-$3.10 per pound, both in line with Jefferies’ expectations.