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Bank of England rate call, US non-farm payrolls: Macro week ahead

Next week brings the Bank of England's turn in the spotlight, after the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s rate calls in recent days.

After the Fed’s decision to hold interest, expectations are widely for the Bank of England to follow the ECB in cutting rates on Thursday.

Figures earlier this month showed gross domestic product barely budged in November before inflation unexpectedly moderated in December, leaving the door open for a February cut.

According to Pantheon Macro, an eight-to-one vote in favour of a 25 basis point cut to 4.5% is most likely, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee's third reduction.

“The MPC is likely to raise near-term inflation forecasts above 3.0% [and] agree implicitly with a market curve that prices around three rate cuts in 2025,” analysts added.

Attention will then turn across the Atlantic on Friday to US non-farm payroll figures and unemployment data for January.

Some 256,000 jobs had been added to the economy in December, as unemployment eased to 4.1%.

IG analysts noted the addition of 205,000 jobs and unemployment of 4.1% was expected this time around, reinforcing “the idea that the Fed is on hold until mid-year”.

Elsewhere, European inflation will be in focus on Monday, while purchasing managers index data is due over the week on both sides of the Atlantic.

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