ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:ASML) quarterly results were above expectations but there was little to change the investor debate over the merits or otherwise of the Dutch semiconductor giant, analysts at UBS said.
Indeed, analysts at Jefferies said the strong fourth-quarter level of bookings and a €36 billion year-end backlog "will dispel some of the bearish concerns regarding 2025 itself, though concerns on the 2026 growth are likely to persist".
Underlying earnings for Q4 were 8% above consensus, UBS noted, while guidance for Q1 of 2025 was 20% above the wider analyst consensus.
The most noteworthy areas in the results for the UBS team were that net bookings reached €7.1 billion for the quarter, up 169% on the previous quarter but down 23% year-on-year, including €3.0 billion for its newer EUV machines.
This compared to buy-side expectations for total orders UBS believed was around €4-6 billion and sell-side at €4.2 billion.
Orders for its older model DUV machines was still strong at €4 billion, up 12% versus Q4 2023 and 224% from Q3 2024, which drove the majority of the upside.
"We believe this could imply strong logic orders (ie TSMC) but also from China (consistent with recent import data)," UBS said.
"Important to note that ASML will stop disclosing orders from next year and only report backlog annually."
China revenues were also highlighted by the Swiss bank, having declined 31% on the quarter and 13% on the year.
Jefferies agreed that Q4 orders were "very strong".
The 2025 guidance was in a broad range, with the analysts observing this was because "AI demand remains strong but uncertainty at other customers".