Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA, ETR:0QF) shares plunged almost 20% after the drugmaker pre-announced fiscal 2024 sales below expectations.
The company expects sales of $3 billion to $3.1 billion, below the Street consensus of $3.3 billion.
Moderna also cut its fiscal 2025 guidance from $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion to $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion, mostly in the second half of the year from Spikevax and mRESVIA vaccine sales.
Further, it expects cost cuts of up to $1.5 billion versus guidance of $1.1 billion in 2027.
“Net-net they lowered revenue guidance and lowered opex but still burning approximately $2 billion in 2025 because they lowered revenue guidance by $1 billion,” analysts at Jefferies wrote. “So lowering opex only offsets the $1 billion revenue cut in 2025.”
They believe Moderna is moving its cost cuts forward due to its lowered 2025 revenue guidance.
“Recall, Moderna had previously announced R&D spend to be reduced by $1 billion starting in 2027 and co is increasing cost cuts to $1.5 billion from $1.1 billion and pushing up the $1 billion in 2025 and $500 million in 2026,” they wrote.
The analysts also highlighted that a Phase 3 study of Moderna’s cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine is fully enrolled, with the company expecting final efficacy data in 2025.
“The Phase 3 CMV has now gone to the full final analysis and did not stop at interim analysis which implies risk to the readout as we stated previously and may not hit or may not be at the 70% to 80% vaccine efficacy docs would like to see (nor above the 58% to stop the interim),” they wrote.
Shares of Moderna were down 19.6% at $34 on Monday afternoon.