The outlook for base metals in 2025 is marked by tight market conditions and constrained supply, especially for copper, nickel and aluminum.
Base metals appear to be better positioned due to the relatively tighter physical markets, analysts at Bank of America (BofA) and UBS have highlighted.
Analysts expect steady demand growth, especially from energy transition efforts. Supply constraints, like limited smelting capacity and reduced mining investment, are expected to keep base metal prices high, despite ongoing uncertainties around tariffs and the economy, notably US-China trade tensions.
Here’s what to expect for different base metals in 2025.
Copper
Copper's market outlook for 2025 is dominated by constrained supply and steady demand growth. “The copper mine project pipeline has been gradually emptying out in the past decade as producers curtailed capital expenditure,” BofA analysts highlighted.
This supply limitation, paired with growing smelting capacities, has driven treatment and refining charges to record lows, threatening the financial viability of smelters and potentially reducing refined copper availability.
Demand trends, particularly from the energy transition, are expected to offset some of the macroeconomic uncertainty. UBS analysts noted that demand growth will remain supported by electrification and grid infrastructure, forecasting “slightly higher than historical trend growth of approximately 2.5% per annum” from these sectors.
However, analysts also acknowledged that recovery in traditional end-use markets like construction and manufacturing may be modest, with restocking and stabilization more likely to occur in the latter half of 2025.
On the supply side, limited new production is expected to exacerbate tight market conditions. UBS projects mine supply growth of just 2% in 2025, adding that “record low benchmark TCRCs and tightening of the scrap market will see limited refined copper growth.”
BofA also pointed out risks to supply, forecasting a deficit of approximately 409,000 tonnes for the year, with inventories falling to just 1.2 weeks of global demand.
Price forecasts reflect these dynamics, with BofA expecting copper to average $9,438 per tonne ($4.28 per pound) in 2025, driven by constrained supply and persistent demand.
Nickel
Nickel’s outlook for 2025 reflects a market in transition, with Indonesia’s regulatory changes poised to reshape global supply and address surpluses.
BofA’s analysts noted that the Indonesian government’s decision to curb production growth, partly to support smaller domestic miners, could mark the end of years of expansion. “The unfettered supply growth of recent years may come to an end, and we anticipate peak nickel oversupply in 2025,” they wrote, underscoring a potential turning point for the industry.
Nickel’s supply-demand dynamics are tightening, with production projected to grow 9.5% in 2025 to 4.1 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to rise 8.3% to 3.7 million tonnes.
Indonesia’s permitting system has already slowed the pace of new projects, and further constraints could limit oversupply beyond next year. Despite this, a surplus is still forecast for 2025, with deficits potentially emerging in later years.
On the demand side, stainless steel continues to be the main driver of nickel demand, while demand from the EV sector has weakened due to changes in the market and the growing adoption of lower-nickel chemistries in EV batteries.
UBS highlighted that while battery demand may not deliver transformational growth, the structural outlook for stainless steel remains robust, particularly in China.
Nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with BofA projecting an average of $16,750 per tonne in 2025. However, a combination of production cuts, project delays, and tighter regulations in Indonesia suggests the market could rebalance over the coming years, potentially setting the stage for a more stable outlook, analysts noted.
Zinc
The zinc market will face another tight year in 2025 mainly due to continued supply constraints, BofA believes.
The bank projected that mine supply would grow by over 5% but cautioned that “lack of capex will likely constrain medium-term growth.” With limited new projects outside China, the shortfall would persist, they added.
UBS analysts noted that while zinc demand was expected to show “stabilization/modest improvement,” they did not foresee any substantial demand growth.
Zinc’s exposure to construction and transport sectors made it more vulnerable to global economic slowdowns, and the analysts saw little leverage to the energy transition.
Despite a potential rebound in mine supply, the analysts predicted a “robust medium-term fundamental outlook” for zinc, driven by continued supply tightness rather than demand growth.
Aluminum
A global aluminum market deficit is expected in 2025 by BofA, who cited China’s limited smelter expansion potential, capped at 45 million tons, and supply constraints around bauxite and alumina.
Despite this, they anticipate prices will stay elevated, with a target of $3,000 per ton.
UBS analysts also expect aluminum demand to grow robustly in the medium term, driven by structural factors like vehicle light-weighting, the energy transition, and packaging substitution.
They caution that demand growth will moderate compared to previous years, with a forecast of “below trend 2025 demand growth of approximately 2.5% accelerating to greater than 3% in 2026.” They also predicted that “some improvement in demand versus limited primary supply growth will support aluminum prices greater than $2,500 per ton.”
Tin
Tin’s outlook for 2025 remains strong, with demand expected to rise further due to the energy transition and recovering global semiconductor sales. Analysts at BofA project the metal will average $37,000 per tonne by 2026, supported by a combination of supply constraints and increasing usage in green technologies.
Tin consumption is forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2025, driven by expanding solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and the rising adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) which require two to three times more tin than traditional combustion-engine vehicles.
On the supply side, global production is expected to increase modestly in 2025, but output will still fall short of demand, extending the market deficit.
The mining ban in Myanmar and delays in production in Indonesia are making it harder to increase tin supply. At the same time, rising costs to produce tin are helping keep prices from dropping too much.
Structurally, tin demand from solar PV and EV sectors is projected to grow at a 14% compound annual rate through 2030, underpinned by the broader green transition.
These trends position tin as a key beneficiary in the evolving metals landscape, with fundamentals likely to remain solid through the mid-decade, the bank’s analysts believe.